Decision-making in natural resources use taking into account the risk of lost opportunities based on pairwise comparison of alternatives

Abstract

The necessity of consideration of the risk of lost opportunities as a component of the total risk in decision-making in environmental management at risk has been justified. The general terms and regulations are formulated and fundamental generalizations, definitions and assertions regarding decision-making in natural resources use taking into account the risk of lost opportunities are presented. The functions are proposed of the total risk of alternatives as linear combinations that combine system (own) risks of alternatives and risks of lost opportunities where last ones are treated as advantageous effects of alternatives that are rejected. The assertion has been formulated that the set of optimal alternatives on the criterion of minimal risk as a result of solving the problem of decision-making while taking into account the risk of lost opportunities coincides with the set of optimal alternatives on the criterion of the maximum utility. It is shown how to determine the components of the total risk of alternatives when filling decision tables on pairwise comparisons of alternatives and algorithms are proposed for choosing the optimal alternative in view of the risk of lost opportunities.