Abstract
The search for an effective and reliable model for predicting accidents on water supply networks by determining their exact locations has always been important for effectively managing water distribution systems. This study, based on the adaptive neuro-fuzzy logical inference system (ANFIS) model, was developed to predict accidents in the city of Kyiv (Ukraine) water supply network. The ANFIS model was combined with genetic algorithms and swarm optimization (ACO) methods and integrated into a GIS to visualize results and determine locations. Forecasts were evaluated according to the following criteria: mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), and coefficient of determination (R2). Depending on the amount and type of input data, ANFIS optimization with genetic algorithms and swarm optimization (ACO) can, on average, increase the accuracy of ANFIS predictions by 10.1% to 11%. The obtained results indicate that the developed hybrid model may be successfully applied to predict accidents on water supply networks.
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