Decision making models in energy projects

Abstract

Long-term strategic investment decisions are associated with high costs and risks. The decision-makers need a solid foundation to judge the best alternative for an investment project. In every sector of business, strategic decisions are taken. The natural gas industry in Germany has made considerable expenditures in gas infrastructure and will continue in future. A considerable part of the investment goes into compressor capacity. To avoid misallocation of funds the optimal alternative for compressors must be identified. Gas suppliers employ a decision-making methodology based on Life Cycle Cost (LCC) analysis in conjunction with the NPV technique to choose the best compressor option. In feasibility studies, several options are evaluated in this way. In this publication seven feasibility studies have been examined. The goal of these studies is to determine the optimum alternative for an investment project in the natural gas industry. The ranking is determined by the calculated NPVs which is based on relevant input data. The quality of input data and its forecasting have a significant impact on the results and can even change the ranking of the options. This publication examines the question of how reliable the results in the feasibility studies are. First, the model calculations are reproduced and the model verified. In the second step, the applied input data are replaced by real historical input data in the model in order to assess the effects on the calculation of the NPV. Sensitivity analysis is applied on relevant input data. Measures for risk mitigation are proposed.