Decision-making Method of Highway Network Planning based on Prospect Theory

Abstract

Considering the impact of risk attitude and the presence of grey characters for highway network planning, a grey relational optimization method based on the cumulative prospect theory is proposed. Firstly, the positive and negative ideal programs are taken as reference points through the standardization of primitive decision information. Secondly, the positive and negative grey relevancy matrices are established for taking positive and negative ideal solutions as reference sequences and taking planning programs as compared sequences. Thirdly, the positive and negative prospect value matrices and a nonlinear planning model for the maximization of comprehensive prospect value are built based on the cumulative prospect theory. The optimum weight vector is then solved, and the order of the programs is determined. Finally, the Xi’an highway network- planning program is presented as an example, which shows feasibility and effectiveness of the method.