Abstract
In recent years, sudden natural disasters occur frequently. Typical emergencies have the characteristics of great uncertainty, large-scale casualty risk, time pressure and urgency, which have a series of serious and sustained impacts on people's production and life. Therefore, after the emergencies, emergency rescue is particularly important for disaster-stricken areas, and the decision-making of emergency logistics is an important part of it. At present, the research on emergency logistics in China focuses on the shortest distribution time, multi-objective decision-making, dynamic path planning, and operational research. It is believed that people are completely rational in making decisions, ignoring people's subjective factors and risk attitudes. From the perspective of decision-makers' risk attitude, this paper studies people's decision-making bias under the condition of incomplete rationality. Based on previous studies, this paper determines the value coefficient and weight coefficient, and according to the characteristics of emergency logistics, time is selected as the reference point., and A path selection model based on cumulative prospect theory is established. According to the risk attitude, the decision maker is divided into risk preference type and risk avoidance type. Based on the established model, an example is simulated, and the parameters in the model are simulated, and the impact of risk attitude and parameter changes on the final decision-making is analyzed. The simulation results show that the cumulative prospect theory is applicable to the study of emergency logistics decision-making mechanism, and the parameter setting will also have an important impact on the path prospect.
Highlights
In recent years, the frequent occurrence of various types of sudden natural disasters has caused huge casualties and economic losses
The decision-making of emergency logistics is an important part of it
It is shown that the final decision of decision makers with different risk preferences is related to the mean and variance of the path
Summary
The frequent occurrence of various types of sudden natural disasters has caused huge casualties and economic losses. The research on the direction of emergency logistics involves less prospects theory, but in reality, the decision-makers may not choose the path completely rationally because of the dynamic changes of the disaster situation, and the decision-makers with different risk attitudes will make different decision-making plans. It has certain theoretical and practical significance for the research of cumulative prospect theory in emergency logistics field. Prospect theory is a theory that describes and predicts people's behavior in risk decision making It is inconsistent with traditional expectation theory and and are relatively insensitive to changes in intermediatestage probabilities. Known as subjective utility function, is used to measure the value of the actual utility value of Assuming that an uncertain scheme consists of a series of combinations (x j, pj ) , and −m j n
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