Currency portfolio behavior in seven major Asian markets

Abstract

This study explores the returns and volatility patterns of currency portfolios (CP) in seven major Asian markets during noncrisis and crisis periods. The CP is developed by investing or divesting in the top three forward premiums or discount currencies in these markets and is rebalanced quarterly. The main findings are as follow: (1) Stochastic volatility models perform better than generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models. (2) Spillover effects from the stock market on CP are observed for the examined periods. (3) The stochastic dominance analysis revealed that CP outperformed most stock markets.