Stock and Currency Market Linkages: An Empirical Analysis from Emerging Economies

Abstract

Purpose: The Causality relationship between forex and stock market in any economy is dependent on its economic fundamentals. This study examines return and volatility linkages between stock and currency markets for 28 emerging economies weekly MSCI stock index values (in local currency) and foreign exchange rates (indirect quotes) from 1988 to 2019. Theoretical Framework: The understanding of the relationship between forex and stock markets through return and volatility spillover will help in predicting behavior of one market on account of the knowledge of movements in another market. Impact of global financial crisis (GFC) on this relationship is another dimension of research. This study finds the causal relationship between forex and stock markets through return and volatility spillover for all emerging economies along with the effect of GFC on the relationship. Design/Methodology/Approach: The empirical analysis is conducted for the total period and three sub-periods namely pre-global financial crisis, crisis, and post-crisis periods by using the Granger Causality test (Granger 1969) followed by Vector Auto Regression (VAR) model and finally the Dynamic Conditional Correlations (DCC), a multivariate model proposed by Engle (2002). The volatility linkages are studied by employing BEKK-GARCH (Baba, Engle, Kraft, & Kroner, 1990) Findings: It is found that return spillovers are predominantly from Stock to forex markets during the pre-crisis and crisis period but from forex to stock market in the post-crisis period. The increasing presence of return relationships from 10 countries in the pre-crisis period to 19 countries during the crisis period, implying a contagion effect. The BEKK-GARCH result confirm that volatility spillovers are observed throughout from forex to stock markets. Research, practical & social implications: More extensive return and volatility associations between stock and forex market after the global financial crisis confirm the increasing importance of economic fundamentals. Return linkages exhibit contagion against the decoupling effect observed in volatility spillovers during the crisis period. Originality/Value: Based on empirical observations, the study attempts to provide important policy implications for Policy makers, global investors, and academic community.