Crypto-optimism in Turkish-Greek relations. What is next?

Abstract

Turkish–Greek problems are not new. They are well delineated and have remained dormant until very recently when the EU Helsinki summit in 1999 took a decision to accept Turkey’s candidature, accompanied by lifting of the Greek veto on Turkish membership aspirations and veiled Turkish acceptance of the Union’s relations with Cyprus. Since then, we have witnessed more twists in the ‘long standing-easy to predict’ Greek–Turkish relations than we had witnessed over the last 40 years. Although the EU had, in the past, declared that it would not be a party to the Greek–Turkish disputes and would not allow them to affect its relations with Turkey, it has gradually, and perhaps inevitably, shifted from this stance since Greece’s membership in 1981. The EU involvement has recently taken a high profile, however, because of a number of reasons: Turkish acceptance of EU Helsinki decisions to refer Greek–Turkish problems to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) should they not solve them by the end of 2004; imminent Greek-Cypriot EU membership on behalf of the whole island; the EU’s promise at long last in Copenhagen to consider starting membership negotiations with Turkey at the end of 2004 or soon thereafter; successful Greek efforts to involve the Union in the Cyprus problem; and finally the recent plan by the UN Secretary General to solve it within a timeframe concomitant with the EU enlargement agenda. However, it would be a naive attempt if we try to understand the longstanding Greek–Turkish entanglement from the recent developments and fail to judge the impact of the not so recent past, which is marred with frequent ups and downs, various attempts to solve the problems, and many queer incidents. A Turkish coaster named Figen Akat, for example, ran aground on 25 December