The Europeanization of Turkey and its impact on the Cyprus problem

Abstract: This study aims to analyze the impact of the Cyprus conflict on Turkey-EU relations while considering several factors: 1) the EU conditionality approach, 2) Turkish-Greek relations, 3) component problems of the Cyprus conflict 4) the recent developments in the Eastern Mediterranean and their impact on Turkey-EU relations. The main focus is on the documents and decisions of different bodies of the EU and how they link the Cyprus conflict to Turkey’s accession process and how Turkey reacts to them. For this purpose, a content analysis of documents, decisions, and protocols issued by the European Council and Commission and Progress Reports on Turkey is conducted. The conclusions drawn from the research are the following: 1) the Cyprus conflict and Turkey’s tense relations with Greece have negatively impacted and continue to impact Turkey-EU relations, 2) Turkey, to some extent, conformed to EU conditionality when it did not refer to the Cyprus conflict, 3) the problems of rights to ports/airports of Cyprus and the issues of property and IDPs shape the strained relations between Turkey and the EU, and finally 4) the situation in the Eastern Mediterranean concerning rights to hydrocarbons currently and in the near future will determine the geopolitical dynamics in the region. Keywords: Turkey-EU relations, Cyprus conflict, Greece, conditionality, “TRNC”, accession.

Turkey is of paramount importance to the United States and to the European Union. The United States is not only the first and foremost partner of both the EU and Turkey. It is also amongst the most committed supporters of Turkey's European integration. In support of Turkey's EU membership bid, Washington has set forth a variety of arguments and has attempted to influence EU decisions at different points in time. US advocacy throughout the 1990s was key to kick-starting Turkey's accession process. By contrast, US influence on Turkey's EU accession decreased visibly in the twenty-first century. The style of US advocacy goes some way towards explaining why this has been the case. When American advocacy has prioritized quiet, behind-closed-doors diplomacy it has tended to be more effective. When instead US officials have relied on loud public diplomacy, European reactions have been generally negative. More importantly however, it is the content of American arguments that has affected their relative impact on European perceptions of Turkey. Depending on whether the US has spoken to the rights-, the interest- or the identity-based logic of enlargement, the influence of the United States on Turkey's EU membership prospects has varied. On the grounds of this analysis, this article concludes by outlining broad policy suggestions regarding how the United States could contribute more effectively to Turkey's European integration.

Turkey's European Future: Behind the Scenes of America's Influence on EU–Turkey Relations – By N. Tocci

In this article, I will examine the post-Helsinki period in EU-Turkey relations with a view to address two questions. First, has the Helsinki decision been effective in resolving the anchor/credibility dilemma in EU-Turkey relations? Second, what has changed between the Helsinki decision of 1999 and Copenhagen decision of 2002? To address these questions, the article is organised as follows. Section 1 examines the run-up and aftermath of the Helsinki summit. In this section, it will be argued that the Helsinki decision was a step that has mitigated the anchor/credibility dilemma, but this step could have been taken two years earlier in Luxembourg. Section 2 explains why the conditional date given in the Copenhagen summit was to be expected and why Turkey’s negative reaction to EU’s offer was driven by Turkey’s reluctance to resolve the Greco-Turkish disputes and Cyprus problem rather than its enthusiasm for integration with Europe. The evidence examined in section 1 and 2 suggests that Turkey is essentially a ‘reluctant European’ and that the Helsinki and Copenhagen decisions have set up a gambit that will force Turkey to show its hand on two major issues: the Cyprus problem and disputes with Greece. Finally, the conclusions section will highlight the main findings and conclude with the argument that the credibility of Turkey’s democratisation and the future of EU-Turkey relations in the post-Copenhagen period will hinge largely on whether the Turkish military will accept a role similar to its counterparts in EU countries or whether it will stage a showdown against the EU itself as well as against growing domestic pressure for change.

Although news items concerning Turkey-EU relations reached at utmost level in 2004 and 2005, the interest of media on Turkish membership ironically decreased gradually after starting membership negotiations on the 3rd October 2005 as it did so in Europe’s policy agenda. The research seeks to ascertain the extent to which the frequency of news items has changed in recent years, and how Turkey-EU relations were covered during the deceleration. The Guardian, one of the leading newspapers of the UK and Europe, is the research sample of the study. News items from this newspaper which were published in the busy period (01/06/2003-31/12/2006) and the silent period (01/01/2007-31/07/2010) were analysed by using quantitative content analysis method. Research results indicate that without a new development in the Cyprus issue, and taking new initiatives in improving democracy and human rights in Turkey, it is unlikely to end the silent period in Turkey-EU relations.

In this article, I will examine the post-Helsinki period in EU-Turkey relations with a view to address two questions. First, has the Helsinki decision been effective in resolving the anchor/credibility dilemma in EU-Turkey relations? Second, what has changed between the Helsinki decision of 1999 and Copenhagen decision of 2002? To address these questions, the article is organised as follows. Section 1 examines the run-up and aftermath of the Helsinki summit. In this section, it will be argued that the Helsinki decision was a step that has mitigated the anchor/credibility dilemma, but this step could have been taken two years earlier in Luxembourg. Section 2 explains why the conditional date given in the Copenhagen summit was to be expected and why Turkey’s negative reaction to EU’s offer was driven by Turkey’s reluctance to resolve the Greco-Turkish disputes and Cyprus problem rather than its enthusiasm for integration with Europe. The evidence examined in section 1 and 2 suggests that Turkey is essentially a ‘reluctant European’ and that the Helsinki and Copenhagen decisions have set up a gambit that will force Turkey to show its hand on two major issues: the Cyprus problem and disputes with Greece. Finally, the conclusions section will highlight the main findings and conclude with the argument that the credibility of Turkey’s democratisation and the future of EU-Turkey relations in the post-Copenhagen period will hinge largely on whether the Turkish military will accept a role similar to its counterparts in EU countries or whether it will stage a showdown against the EU itself as well as against growing domestic pressure for change.

This article provides a game theoretic analysis of how the candidacy of Cyprus for European Union (EU) membership presents an important challenge for both the Union's eastern enlargement plans and current international efforts aimed at resolving the Cyprus problem. The conclusions indicate that the Cypriot conflict has entered a very delicate period in its protracted and troublesome history characterized by a deadlock game. Strong domestic and international factors have created the conditions for each side to follow a non-cooperative strategy aimed at unilateral victory rather than a compromise. In this regard, the EU's promise to the Greek Cypriots of membership in the Union, regardless of the settlement of the Cyprus problem, serves as a side payment that enforces non-cooperative strategy. Likewise, Turkey's overwhelming military superiority in the region and its unconditional support for the Turkish Cypriots strengthens the Turkish side's rigid position in the Cyprus negotiations. Under these circumstances, it is argued that an influential third party like the United States is needed to coordinate the efforts of the UN and EU to move the two parties away form a deadlock game. This effort requires a package approach to the issues surrounding the Cyprus problem, the island's membership in the EU, and EU-Turkey relations.

Introduction: Turkey at the Threshold of the EU J.S.Joseph The Economic Dimension of Turkey's EU Membership: A Stock-taking Exercise at the Start of Accession Negotiations M.Ugur Between Fedora and Fez: Modern Turkey's Troubled Road to Democratic Consolidation and the Pluralizing Role of Erdogan's Pro-Islam Government S.Kotsovilis The EU Challenge: A View from the Turkish Grand National Assembly N.G.Loizides & E.Ersin Relations between the State and Civil Society in Turkey: Does the EU Make a Difference? W.Weber The Kurdish Problem in International Politics M.M.Gunter The Europeanization of Turkey's Kurdish Question N.Tocci The Greek Variable in EU-Turkish Relations A.Kazamias Turkey's Quest for EU Membership and the Cyprus Problem T.Bahcheli Security Implications of Turkey's March toward EU Membership M.Kibaroglu The US and Turkey's Quest for EU Membership O.Taspinar The Iraq War and the Troubled US-Turkish Alliance: Some Conclusions for Europe O.Kayhan & D.Lindley

Introduction, Firat Cengiz and Lars Hoffmann 1. European Union, Turkey and the Cyprus Problem: The Failure of a Catalyst, George Kyris 2. The Cyrpus Issue and Turkey's Accession Negotiations: Catalyst Effect or Gordian Knot?, Nikos Skoutaris 3. The Cyprus Challenge in the Turkey-EU Relations: Heading Towards the Defining Moment?, Ahmet Sozen 4. The Arab Spring and Regional Integration: Can the EU and Turkey Cooperate?, Kemal Kirisci 5. Turkey In Progress - Foreign Policy, Geopolitics and Democracy, Emidio Diodato 6. Explaining The Rise of Euroscepticism in the Turkish Political Elite, Seckin Baris Gulmez 7. Free Movement of Turkish Citizens after Soysal Judgement, Gozde Kaya 8. AKP's Shifting Support for EU Accession: Secular Constraints, Organizational Capacities and Religious Ideas, Beken Saatcioglu and Arolda Elbasani 9. Rethinking Conditionality: Gender Equality and the Kurdish Issue in Turkey's EU Accession Framework, Firat Cengiz 10. The Domestic Effects of Turkey's EU Accession Negotiations: A Missed Opportunity For Europe?, Joerg Baudner 11. The EU and Political Reform in Turkey: Moving Beyond Conditionality, Paul Kubicek Conclusions, Firat Cengiz and Lars Hoffmann Epilogue, Firat Cengiz

A rapidly-changing nation and a key player in the Middle East, Turkey has long been centrally important to both the United States and the European Union. A major partner both of the EU and Turkey, the US has also been the most ardent and committed supporter of closer ties between them. Yet while Turkey's relations with the US and the EU have been intimately linked, they have not proceeded along two parallel planes. Nathalie Tocci tells the story of this dynamic triangular relationship, exploring how and why the US has shaped the course of relations among its allies. An empirical study with strong policy relevance, this volume draws on in-depth interviews and official documents to provide a succinct overview of the issues and stakeholders. Tocci argues that the Turkish situation can be viewed as a quintessential case study, tackling broader questions about US foreign policy in the region as a whole.

Nathalie Tocci New York and London: New York University Press, 2011, ISBN 978-0-8147-8409-9 £37.00 Unlike other candidate states, the accession process of Turkey to the European Union has already t...

The temporality of the Turkey-EU relations, coupled with the “state of affairs” of the Cyprus problem, reflected the “linkage politics” as initially opposed by Turkey. 2024 was the 30th anniversary of the so-called “Europeanisation of the Cyprus Problem” when the Republic of Cyprus (RoC) was included in the EU enlargement process in the 1994 Corfu Summit without the resolution of the problem. Cyprus became an EU member state as a divided island on May 1st 2004 whilst RoC was considered as the sole representative of the island on behalf of both the Greek Cypriot and the Turkish Cypriot communities despite the lack of the latter’s representation. The current political stalemate on the island and the lack of a constructive dialogue between Turkey and EU unveiled the linkage between Turkey’s prospective EU membership and the solution of the Cyprus problem. In this regard, the trajectory of the TurkeyEU relations evolved into a new temporality under geopolitical contestation in which Cyprus conflict is coupled by the hydrocarbon economy developing in the Southeastern Mediterranean. Although a new political economy dimension has been added with the rise and fall of the hydrocarbon agenda, the whole process can be best summed as “plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose”. Key words: Cyprus problem, temporality, Europeanisation, carbonization, linkage politics.

EU-Turkey bilateral relations are characterised by complexity, mutual ambivalence and a three-layered structure. The first layer is the 50 year-long association relationship based on a customs union. The second layer, in the form of the accession process, provides Turkey with a candidate status since 1999 which resulted in accession talks in 2005 but have since December 2006 been practically frozen. The third and more recent layer is characterised by the compartmentalisation of policy fields such as migration, aviation and energy cooperation. This latter development has two explanations: first, to serve the EU’s short-term and mid-term interests, with accession a ‘far away’ prospect for any of the current candidate countries, and, second, to streamline the approach to Turkey with the other accession candidates. Under the renewed consensus on enlargement since 2006, difficult issues such as administrative and judicial reforms and the fight against corruption will be addressed at an early stage of the negotiations and the more systematic use of benchmarks will be applied, with concrete criteria for the opening and closing of individual negotiation chapters. Since the 2015 EU refugee crisis, new dynamics in EU-Turkey relations appear to develop for all other layers in the bilateral relations. With the political events of 2016 in Turkey, the delicate balance in the multilayered relationship is threatened and both sides are returning to old habits of mistrust and ambivalence in their relations.

This chapter summarizes the key insights derived from a three-dimensional perspective on EU–Turkey relations that combines the analytical lenses of (1) theories and concepts, (2) institutions, and (3) policies. It furthermore reflects upon the different periodizations of the EU–Turkey relationship. On this basis, we offer a systematic survey of the conditions under which cooperative trends in EU–Turkey relations could be (re)invigorated. The analysis shows that despite the high potential for reciprocity inside and outside the accession framework, the relationship currently rests on unfavorable conditions for cooperation on both sides. Important enablers of cooperative behavior—trust, communication, reputation, fairness, enforcement, and common identity—cannot properly operate in the current setup. The chapter puts forward possible means to allow for these enablers to facilitate cooperative behavior in EU–Turkey relations in the future. It concludes by discussing the future trajectory of the relationship and pinpointing avenues for a future research agenda for EU–Turkey studies.

This chapter investigates and explains EU–Turkey relations from the perspective of Liberal Intergovernmentalism (LI). After setting out the main premises of neoliberalism in International Relations (IR) and the three-step approach to integration espoused by LI, the chapter focuses on EU–Turkey relations over time, and by the use of concrete forms of cooperation, ranging from the Customs Union to Turkey’s membership application and the EU–Turkey Statement on migration. Based on this analysis, I argue that the transactional, issue-specific character EU–Turkey relations have assumed are unlikely to go away any time soon. Neither Turkey’s full EU accession nor a complete breakdown of relations is likely to happen, given the set of powerful economic interests binding the two sides, as well as the diversity of member states’ preferences regarding Turkey’s EU vocation.