Greek–Turkish Relations

Abstract

This chapter examines the development of Greek–Turkish relations under the influence of the European Union and the limits of the rapprochement between the two countries. The 1999 lifting of the Greek veto on the improvement of EU–Turkey relations triggered an improvement in bilateral relations which has remained unprecedented since the 1950s. Bilateral relations underwent a paradigmatic shift which allowed for zero-sum game-based approaches to be challenged. Economic and civil society ties grew stronger; minority problems were mitigated while longstanding bilateral diplomatic disputes remained unresolved and far from international adjudication. Turkey’s faltering EU membership ambitions weakened a crucial catalyst of Greek–Turkish rapprochement, yet there was no relapse to the pre-1999 problematic relations. Despite the severe economic and social crises that hit Greece and Turkey in the last decade, Greek–Turkish relations have not fallen victim to rampant populism. In both countries, the bilateral disputes and the Cyprus issue declined in importance compared to other foreign policy issues. This allowed both sides to focus on urgent questions but removed a strong incentive to take risks for conflict resolution. The costs of avoiding a bitter compromise appear low, and this provides a strong incentive to political leaders to refrain from necessary political risks. This poses substantial risks for the future and prevents the development of even closer economic and social relations.