Abstract
Modern agriculture contributes significantly to greenhouse gas emissions, and agriculture has become the second biggest source of carbon emissions in China. In this context, it is necessary for China to study the nexus of agricultural economic growth and carbon emissions. Taking Jilin province as an example, this paper applied the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis and a decoupling analysis to examine the relationship between crop production and agricultural carbon emissions during 2000–2018, and it further provided a decomposition analysis of the changes in agricultural carbon emissions using the log mean Divisia index (LMDI) method. The results were as follows: (1) Based on the results of CO2 EKC estimation, an N-shaped EKC was found; in particular, the upward trend in agricultural carbon emissions has not changed recently. (2) According to the results of the decoupling analysis, expansive coupling occurred for 9 years, which was followed by weak decoupling for 5 years, and strong decoupling and strong coupling occurred for 2 years each. There was no stable evolutionary path from coupling to decoupling, and this has remained true recently. (3) We used the LMDI method to decompose the driving factors of agricultural carbon emissions into four factors: the agricultural carbon emission intensity effect, structure effect, economic effect, and labor force effect. From a policymaking perspective, we integrated the results of both the EKC and the decoupling analysis and conducted a detailed decomposition analysis, focusing on several key time points. Agricultural economic growth was found to have played a significant role on many occasions in the increase in agricultural carbon emissions, while agricultural carbon emission intensity was important to the decline in agricultural carbon emissions. Specifically, the four factors’ driving direction in the context of agricultural carbon emissions was not stable. We also found that the change in agricultural carbon emissions was affected more by economic policy than by environmental policy. Finally, we put forward policy suggestions for low-carbon agricultural development in Jilin province.
Highlights
Modern agriculture contributes significantly to greenhouse gas emissions, and agriculture has become the second biggest source of carbon emissions in China
The Chinese issued a series of policies of agricultural tax reduction and exemption in 2004, and the farmers recovered their confidence in agriculture and increased inputs in crop production, leading to agricultural CO2 emissions increasing with a growth rate of 36.2% and reaching a phase peak of 5.91 million tons in 2007
There were four types of decoupling/coupling states between crop production and agricultural CO2 emissions during 2000–2018: expansive coupling state occurred for 9 years, followed by a weak decoupling state, which occurred for 5 years, and strong decoupling and strong coupling occurred for 2 years each
Summary
Modern agriculture contributes significantly to greenhouse gas emissions, and agriculture has become the second biggest source of carbon emissions in China. In this context, it is necessary for China to study the nexus of agricultural economic growth and carbon emissions. Res. Public Health 2021, 18, 8219 increased from 12.69 million tons in 1980 to 52.04 million tons in 2019, and agriculture was the second biggest source of carbon emissions [5]. Public Health 2021, 18, 8219 increased from 12.69 million tons in 1980 to 52.04 million tons in 2019, and agriculture was the second biggest source of carbon emissions [5] In this regard, it is necessary for China to study the nexus of agricultural economic growth and carbon emissions
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