Innovative measurement, trade-off-synergy relationship and influencing factors for agricultural net carbon emissions and effective supply of agricultural products in China

Abstract

Sensitive zone of global climate change has been formed in China, and it has become a hot topic how can agriculture ensure food security and the supply of important agricultural products while achieving the “Dual Carbon” goal in the country. Based on such background, this paper uses the IPCC carbon emission calculation method, environmental input-output model and economic-water-carbon coefficient method to measure agricultural net carbon emissions, adopts bivariate spatial auto-correlation analysis and SYS-GMM to explore separately the relationship between agricultural net carbon emissions and effective supply of agricultural products, as well as the carbon reduction effect, growth effect and reasonable range of green technology innovation. The results show that: (1) China's agricultural net carbon emissions reveal a spatial distribution of “higher in the east than in the west than in the center” and a temporal characteristic of increasing year by year; China's effective supply of agricultural products shows an increasing trend and a spatial distribution of “higher in the east than in the center than in the west” in 2006–2012 and “higher in the east than in the west than in the center” in 2013–2020. (2) In 2006, 2010, 2015 and 2020, the number of provinces that belong to low-low agglomeration trade-off zone, low-high agglomeration synergy zone, non-significant zone, high-low agglomeration non-trade-off-synergy zone and high-high agglomeration trade-off zone averagely accounted for 12.500 %, 30.000 %, 26.667 %, 9.167 % and 21.667 % of the totality, respectively. (3) The carbon reduction and production growth effects of green technology innovation both show an inverted “U-shape”, and green technology innovation is conducive to both reducing agricultural net carbon emissions and improving supply of agricultural products when it is within a reasonable range of greater than 0.930. (4) Green technology innovation not only has significant spatial and temporal heterogeneity impact, but also exhibits a differential effect on productive agricultural carbon emissions, agricultural trade carbon emissions, agricultural carbon sinks, total output of agricultural products and agricultural net imports in international trade. Therefore, it is proposed that China should establish and improve green technology innovation incubation platforms, guide all participants to ensure the investment and application of green technology products within a reasonable range, formulate and implement regional differential policies and plan in accordance with local conditions, drive ultimately coordinated promotion of agricultural carbon emission reduction and product supply guarantee and lay an important foundation for achieving high-quality economic development and efficient ecological protection.