Critical technologies: results of a foresight study in Ukraine in 2021

Abstract

The identification and implementation of new critical technologies in the field of weapons and military equipment will create prerequisites for the further development of highly competitive technological industries, as well as ensure the development and implementation of modern models of military equipment; will modernize existing weapons and improve their tactical and technical characteristics. Therefore, the work to identify critical technologies in this area is important for Ukraine, the results of which this article is devoted to. The goal is to update the list of critical technologies in the field of armaments and military equipment in pursuance of the order of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine from August 30, 2017 No 600 using foresight research in 7 thematic areas. The foresight research methodology is complex and includes 3 methods: two stages of expert surveys (scientists who made proposals; entrepreneurs who evaluated the proposals of scientists in terms of the importance and necessity for the business of the proposed technologies); scientometric and patent analysis to assess the relevance of the proposals of experts-scientists in terms of trends in world science and new technologies — 3rd stage; assessment of the proposals of expert scientists in terms of the possibilities and existing potential of Ukrainian science to carry out the proposed research — 4th stage. For each of the 4 stages presented, each proposal received 4 assessment, which were then reduced to an integral assessment. According to the integral assessment, all technologies for each thematic area were separately ranked and divided into three clusters. The best clusters were proposed as critical technologies. Assessment methods are methods of system analysis, intellectual property analytics, rank method, cluster analyse. Based on the results of the study, the Ministry of Education and Science has prepared a draft updated list of 24 critical technologies in 5 thematic areas, which was approved on February 23, 2022 by the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine. Subsequent work should include the results of a monitoring the implementation of approved technologies in the field of weapons and military equipment and determining the accuracy of the forecast.