Crimes, Causes and Punishments in Contemporary China: A Statistical Analysis

Abstract

This research aims at improving our knowledge of the relationship between crimes, criminal causes, and punishments in contemporary China with the help of an empirical quantitative analysis. In this study, I use multiple databases including a longitudinal database of Chinese national level crime rates (1988-2007), a provincial-level database (with data from 31 provinces) of both crime rates and socio-economic indices in selected years (1998, 2003, and 2007), and a dataset of 641 lawsuit cases handled by the Chinese Supreme Court in 1998, 2003, and 2007. Statistical analysis of multiple databases confirms that socio-economic indices are significantly correlated with crime rates at both the longitudinal and cross-sectional levels. This finding may have significant implications for China's criminal justice practice. When the rising crime rate is mainly caused by social factors, it is not wise to focus simply on proportionally increasing investment in criminal penalty resources. An investment seemingly disproportionate to the crime rate may yield better results and a more balanced criminal justice policy.