Abstract
Pine wilt disease (PWD) caused by the pine wood nematode (PWN, Bursaphelenchus xylophilus) can, in suitable conditions, lead to mass mortality of susceptible trees. In the European Union, PWN is a quarantine pest. To support PWN risk management in Finland, we assessed the suitability of the Finnish present and future climate for both PWD and PWN establishment inside susceptible healthy trees. The former was done using the mean summer temperature concept and the latter by relating annual growing degree days to the likelihoods of PWN extinction and establishment inside healthy trees. The likelihoods were derived from the previously published modelling of PWN population dynamics for 139 locations in Germany. Both assessments were conducted using 10 × 10 km resolution climate data from 2000–2019 and Finland-specific climate change projections for 2030–2080. The results indicate that the present Finnish climate is too cool for both PWD and PWN establishment inside healthy trees. Furthermore, even global warming does not appear to turn the Finnish climate suitable for PWD or PWN establishment inside healthy trees by 2080, except under the worst-case representative concentration pathway scenario (RCP8.5). Consequently, giving top priority to PWN when allocating resources for biosecurity activities in Finland might deserve reconsideration.
Highlights
Pine wood nematode (PWN, Bursaphelenchus xylophilus) is the causal agent of pine wilt disease (PWD) that can lead to mass mortality of susceptible trees (e.g., [1])
To support risk management related to PWN, we assessed the suitability of the Finnish present and future climate for PWD in susceptible but healthy host trees using the mean summer temperature (MST) concept presented by Gruffudd et al [6]
To assess the suitability of the future Finnish climate for PWD and PWN, we used climate change projections tailored for Finland under the RCP2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios for consecutive overlapping 30-year periods centred around the years 2030, 2040, 2050, 2060, 2070 and 2080 [46]
Summary
Pine wood nematode (PWN, Bursaphelenchus xylophilus) is the causal agent of pine wilt disease (PWD) that can lead to mass mortality of susceptible trees (e.g., [1]). The likelihood of PWD expression in the future climates has been assessed for some European countries, such as Spain [28] and Germany [27], but the only assessments that cover the northernmost part of Europe are the global ones by Hirata et al [29] and Ikegami and Jenkins [30]. To support risk management related to PWN, we assessed the suitability of the Finnish present and future climate for PWD in susceptible but healthy host trees using the mean summer temperature (MST) concept presented by Gruffudd et al [6]. The intervals were determined using the results of the ETpN model for Germany [27] Both assessments were done using high spatial resolution (10 × 10 km) climate data and climate change projections prepared for Finland under three RCP scenarios [31]
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