Cost‐efficiency potential of solar energy on a global scale: Case studies for Si solar modules with PERC and heterojunction structures

Abstract

AbstractLevelized cost of electricity (LCOE) is a crucial metric for assessing the socio‐economic cost‐efficiency potential of various energy sources including solar photovoltaics. Nevertheless, accurate LCOE estimations for commercialized high‐efficiency Si solar modules with passivated emitter and rear cell (PERC) and silicon heterojunction (SHJ) structures have been lacking. In this study, we present the first global LCOE estimates for a PERC module (20% cell efficiency) and a SHJ module (23% cell efficiency), which have been derived by (i) performing rigorous energy‐yield calculations with full‐spectral and temperature‐dependent simulations that incorporate all essential meteorological effects and (ii) considering country‐specific capital costs and discount rates. Moreover, to determine the universal global LCOE, the LCOEs for three distinct installation capacities (100 MW for a utility, 500 kW for a commercial, and 5 kW for a residential system) have been unified by selecting an appropriate system size at each location based on a population density. We find that the LCOEs of both PERC and SHJ systems are below 3 cents/kWh in 2020 US dollar in many areas of China, Saudi Arabia, the United States, Australia, Chile, and Botswana, where the conditions of a high energy yield, low population density, low capital cost, and low country‐risk premium are satisfied simultaneously. In contrast, many European countries exhibit a moderate LCOE of 3~5 cents/kWh. Notably, Japan and Russia exhibit quite high LCOEs (6~10 cents/kWh) primarily due to significantly higher installation costs and moderate energy yields. Importantly, the global LCOEs of the PERC and SHJ modules are quite similar, with the SHJ module showing a slightly better cost performance in the regions near the equator due to its low temperature coefficient. Conversely, the PERC module demonstrates a cost advantage in the Northern Hemisphere due to a lower module cost.