Copernicus global crop productivity indicators: An evaluation based on regionally reported yields

Abstract

Climate variability places significant pressure on climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture. Information on crop-related climate and water indicators under climate change becomes essential. The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) provides reliable information about climate change based on climate models, Earth Observations, and in situ data to support adaptation policies. Within this C3S context, the Global Agriculture Sectoral Information System (SIS) has developed a new product based on global crop productivity indicators to document the effects of climate variability on crop yield variability. This study focuses on the evaluation of climate-enhanced, earth observation (EO) based crop productivity indicators i.e., Total Weight Storage Organs (TWSO, equivalent to yield), Total Above Ground Production (TAGP). These variables provide insights into the Spatio-temporal variability of yield, productivity, and development of four major staple crops (rice, maize, soybean, and wheat) for their main production regions at the global scale for the period 2000–2018. In this study, the evaluation was carried out spatially and temporally for the United States of America, India, and China for the period 2000–2018, using reported yield statistics aggregated to the lowest available administrative level of each region. For almost all the crops in the three countries, the skilled error can be reduced by more than 25% for both the indicators TAGP and TWSO compared to the trend of reported yield, suggesting considerable performance in assessing interannual yield variability. Results indicated both indicators individually performed well in many important producing areas of the USA, India, and China. However, if we compare both the indicator’s performance in terms of production totals in the USA, India, and China, TAGP contributes ∼27–50% of total crop production in the USA and India, and ∼47–75% in China. While, TWSO contributes ∼24–41% in the USA and India, and 5–65% in China.