Yield trends and variabilities explained by climatic change in coastal and non-coastal areas of Bangladesh

Abstract

Agricultural activities are shaped by climate cycles, and net negative effects of climate change on crop production are evident from scientific researches. This data-driven analytical study aims to assess the fraction of yield trends and variabilities of six major crops (aus, aman, and boro rice, wheat, potato, and jute) attributable to climatic trends and variabilities in coastal and non-coastal areas of Bangladesh. Mixed effects model was used to detect the effects of temperature and precipitation on the crop production and piecewise regression models to estimate the association between climate and yield variabilities. The predicted yields using the detrended temperature and/or precipitation series were subtracted from the predicted yields using their observed series to obtain the yield impact of temperature and/or precipitation trends. During the major disasters (1970–2017), the coast and non-coast, respectively, had lost 12.10 and 9.56% of their crop production. Climatic records (1970–2017) show that the coastal areas had become 0.35 °C warmer and 579 mm wetter, respectively, with 0.15 and 8.57% greater variance than the mainland. Consequently, negative impacts of climatic trends and variabilities on yield trends and variabilities were found to be higher in the coastal region. On average, 2.75 and 2.91% of the crop yields were lost, respectively, due to climatic trends and variabilities, which is equivalent to 2.4 million tons per year (Mt/yr). Excluding the effects of locations and crop types, temperature and precipitation can explain 12% (≡3.06 Mt./yr) of the crop production variance. Findings suggest that coastal crop production is more susceptible to climate change than the inland. Useful insights provided by this research would help policymakers to develop strategies to make future crop production more stable. Researchers and academicians can also benefit from the generated data and methodological approaches to analyse regional and global scale climatic roles in crop production.