Controlling For X: Export Controls and Emerging Technology Competition

Abstract

The prevailing view in Washington is that the United States and China are in a fierce competition for control of critical technologies of the future. The Biden Administration’s October 2022 semiconductor export control rules target China’s ability to make or obtain the most advanced semiconductors – the foundational components of advanced technologies. It is best to understand the United States semiconductor export controls as a tool being wielded by the US government in a fight for global technological dominance, particularly in the realm of AI. This strategy represents a substantial assertion of extraterritorial power by the United States, increases the risk of catastrophic conflict between the United States and China, and has the potential to backfire by accelerating China’s domestic semiconductor industry development. The United States should consider easing elements of the semiconductor export controls in exchange for diplomatic concessions, such as greater bilateral military communication, and focus more attention on increasing domestic production of advanced semiconductor technologies by fast tracking expert visas and permitting for new semiconductor fabrication facilities.