Contextualising the Taliban redux (2021): is the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan a Pyrrhic Victory for Pakistan?

Abstract

ABSTRACT After the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, a Pakistan spy chief told journalists in Kabul: ‘don’t worry, everything will be okay’ in Afghanistan. What is interesting to note in this assertion is that Pakistan had consistently been accused of playing a ‘double game’ in the war on terror since 2001. This paper examines the return of the Taliban and Pakistan’s role in their victory in August-2021. In particular, it addresses the following questions: Why are Pakistan-Afghanistan relations so fraught? What is the pattern of Pakistan’s influence over the Afghan Taliban? How different is the post- 2021 Taliban regime from its Taliban predecessors (1996–2001)? What might the long-term implications of the Taliban victory be for Pakistan? This paper employs the security-cum-rentier state framework to explain Pakistan’s double game in the war on terror. Moreover, this paper aims to situate and contextualize the situation in Afghanistan (2001–2021) in the ongoing geopolitical rivalry, i.e. Quad/ Indo-Pacific Strategy (West) versus the Belt and Road Initiative (China). Methodologically, this study is based on secondary sources and some primary sources (official documents).