Abstract
This study compared precipitation projections of CMIP5 and CMIP6 GCMs over Yulin City, China. The performance of CMIP5 and CMIP6 GCMs in replicating Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) precipitation climatology of the city was evaluated using different statistical metrics. The best performing GCMs common to both CMIP5 and CMIP6 were finally selected and subsequently downscaled to GPCC resolution using linear scaling method to assess spatiotemporal changes in precipitation in the basin. The study revealed BCC.CSM1.1(m), IPSL.CM5A.LR, MRI.CGCM3, and MIROC5 of CMIP5 and their equivalents BCC-CSM2-MR, IPSL-CM6A-LR, MRI.ESM2.0, and MIRCO6 of CMIP6 as the most suitable GCMs for the projection of precipitation in Yulin. This study revealed changes in precipitation in the range of −14.0 to 0.0% and −22.0 to 0.2% during 2021−2060 for RCP4.5 and SSP245 scenarios, respectively. The precipitation was projected to decrease more during 2061–2100 for both the scenarios. The highest decrease of −29.7 to −22.0% was projected by MRI-ESM-2-0 for SSP2-45, while −28.0 to −20.0% by MIROC5 for RCP4.5. For RCP8.5 and SSP5-85 scenarios, precipitation was projected to decrease in the range of −17.0 to −2.0% and −32.0 to 0.0%, respectively, during 2021–2060 by most of the GCMs. An increase in precipitation up to 12.3% was projected only by IPSL-CM5A-LR for RCP85 for this period. A further decrease in precipitation was projected by all GCMs during 2061−2100 for both RCP8.5 and SSP5-85 scenarios. The highest decrease was projected by MIROC5 (−40.2 to −29.0%) for RCP8.5 and IPSL-CM6A-LR (−40.2 to −26.0%) for SSP5-85. Overall, the results revealed a higher decrease in precipitation in Yulin City by CMIP6 GCMs compared to that projected by their corresponding GCMs of CMIP5 for both scenarios. This study can be of significance in the planning and mitigation of climate change as it gives insight into the expected changes in precipitation and the possibility of the choices of the best performing GCMs.
Highlights
Climate change has been an issue of concern over several decades due to its devastating impacts
The results revealed a higher decrease in precipitation in Yulin city by comparison Phase 6 (CMIP6) global climate models (GCM) compared to those projected by their corresponding GCMs of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) for both scenarios
This study compares the projections of precipitation by CMIP5 and CMIP6 GCMs over
Summary
Climate change has been an issue of concern over several decades due to its devastating impacts It has increased the risks of flooding (Manawi et al, 2020; Rahman et al, 2019), occurrences of droughts (Alamgir et al, 2019; Ayugi et al, 2020; Shiru et al, 2019a), heatwaves (Kang and Eltahir, 2018; Khan et al, 2019; Satyanarayana and Rao, 2020) and ecosystem damages (Kim et al, 2019; Pérez-Ruiz et al, 2018). Flooding is a common occurrence in different parts of China including cities like Yulin (Huang et al, 2015; Yang et al, 2017) and it often causes damages to sectors such as power, agriculture, health and sometimes leads to loss of lives (He et al, 2018). The region is known to be affected by droughts (Wang et al, 2020; Yin et al, 2020)
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