Comparison Analysis of Prediction the Number of Covid-19 Cases Using Support Vector Regression and Long Short-Time Memory

Abstract

Covid-19 emerged as a pandemic outbreak that spread almost worldwide at the end of December 2019. While this research was carried out, the Covid-19 pandemic was still ongoing. Many countries have made various attempts to overcome Covid-19. In Indonesia, the government and stakeholders, including researchers, have made many activities to reduce the number of positive patients. One of many activities that the government made is the vaccination program. The vaccination program is believed to be the most effective in reducing the number of positive cases of Covid-19. But nobody knows when the Covid-19 pandemic will end. Stakeholder has to know how the trend of Covid-19 cases in Indonesia to make a better decision for facing Covid-19 cases. This study aims to predict the number of positive Covid-19 cases in Indonesia by conducting a comparative analysis performance of Support Vector Regression (SVR) method and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) method in machine learning to the prediction of the number of Covid-19 cases. This study was conducted using the dataset Covid-19 in Indonesia from Control Team from 13 January 2021 until 08 November 2021 and with 300 records. The evaluation has been conducted to know the performance of the model prediction number of Covid-19 with Support Vector Regression method and Long Short-Term Memory method based on values of R-Square (R <sup xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">2</sup> ), the value of Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Square Error (MSE). The research found that the method Support Vector Regression has better performance than Long Short-Term Memory method for making a prediction of the number Covid-19 using Machine Learning model based on the value of accuracy and error rate based with the value of R-Squared, MAE, and MSE are consecutively 0.902, 0.163, and 0.072.