Cointegration Analysis on the Relationship Between China's Highway Transportation Industry and National Economic Development

Abstract

Highway transportation industry plays an important role in national economic development. In this paper cointegration theory is used to analyze the quantitative relationship between China's highway transportation industry and national economic development. At first, literature overview is taken for the relationship between highway transportation industry and national economic development. Secondly, the basic principles of co-integration theory and Granger Causality Test are introduced, including the stability test, cointegration tests and Granger Causality Test. Then, the index system is constructed. Highway cargo and passenger transport turnover are selected to reflect the development of highway transportation industry. GDP is used to reflect the basic situation of national economic development. Then explorative analysis is taken. The results show that there is a long-term balance relationship between China's highway transport and national economic growth. At last, some suggestions for the development of China's highway transportation industry are proposed.