Coexistence of wolves and humans in a densely populated region (Lower Saxony, Germany)

Abstract

Since the first sporadic occurrences of grey wolves (Canis lupus) west of the Polish border in 1996, wolves have shown a rapid population recovery in Germany. Wolves are known to avoid people and wolf attacks on humans are very rare worldwide. However, the subjectively perceived threat is considerable, especially as food-conditioned habituation to humans occurs sporadically. Lower Saxony (Germany) has an exceedingly higher human population density than most other regions with territorial wolves; thus, the potential for human–wolf conflicts is higher. Using hunters’ wildlife survey data from 455 municipalities and two years (2014–2015) and data from the official wolf monitoring (557 confirmed wolf presences and 500 background points) collected between 2012–2015, grey wolf habitat selection was modelled using generalized additive models with respect to human population density, road density, forest cover and roe deer density. Moreover, we tested whether habitat use changed in response to human population and road density between 2012/2013 and 2014/2015.Wolves showed a preference for areas of low road density. Human population density was less important as a covariate in the model of the survey data. Areas with higher prey abundance (5–10 roe deer/km2) and areas with >20% forest cover were preferred wolf habitats. Wolves were mostly restricted to areas with the lowest road and human population densities. However, between the two time periods, avoidance of human density decreased significantly.Recolonization of Germany is still in its early stages and it is unclear where this process will halt. To-date authorities mainly concentrate on monitoring measures. However, to avoid conflict, recolonization will require more stringent management of wolf populations and an improved information strategy for rural populations.