Abstract
AbstractAimThe recent recovery of large carnivores in Europe has been explained as resulting from a decrease in human persecution driven by widespread rural land abandonment, paralleled by forest cover increase and the consequent increase in availability of shelter and prey. We investigated whether land cover and human population density changes are related to the relative probability of occurrence of three European large carnivores: the grey wolf (Canis lupus), the Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) and the brown bear (Ursus arctos).LocationEurope, west of 64° longitude.MethodsWe fitted multi‐temporal species distribution models using >50,000 occurrence points with time series of land cover, landscape configuration, protected areas, hunting regulations and human population density covering a 24‐year period (1992–2015). Within the temporal window considered, we then predicted changes in habitat suitability for large carnivores throughout Europe.ResultsBetween 1992 and 2015, the habitat suitability for the three species increased in Eastern Europe, the Balkans, North‐West Iberian Peninsula and Northern Scandinavia, but showed mixed trends in Western and Southern Europe. These trends were primarily associated with increases in forest cover and decreases in human population density, and, additionally, with decreases in the cover of mosaics of cropland and natural vegetation.Main conclusionsRecent land cover and human population changes appear to have altered the habitat suitability pattern for large carnivores in Europe, whereas protection level did not play a role. While projected changes largely match the observed recovery of large carnivore populations, we found mismatches with the recent expansion of wolves in Central and Southern Europe, where factors not included in our models may have played a dominant role. This suggests that large carnivores’ co‐existence with humans in European landscapes is not limited by habitat availability, but other factors such as favourable human tolerance and policy.
Highlights
During the nineteenth and mid-twentieth centuries, large carnivores in Europe saw their numbers and distribution decline sharply, mainly due to human persecution, habitat loss and fragmentation (Chapron et al, 2014; Linnell et al, 2009)
We investigated if land cover, human population density and protection status are related to the occurrence of Eurasian lynx, brown bear or grey wolf across Europe and over the past 24 years
We assessed whether land cover, landscape configuration, human density, protection status and protected area coverage were associated with changes in habitat suitability for large carnivore across Europe during the period between 1992 and 2015
Summary
During the nineteenth and mid-twentieth centuries, large carnivores in Europe saw their numbers and distribution decline sharply, mainly due to human persecution, habitat loss and fragmentation (Chapron et al, 2014; Linnell et al, 2009). In Europe, large carnivore species recolonized former range starting from source populations living in remote and mountainous regions (Linnell et al, 2010; Swenson et al, 1995), and thanks to specific reintroduction and translocation programs for lynx and bears (Breitenmoser et al, 1998; Samojlik et al, 2018; Zedrosser et al, 2001). After the end of World War II, Europe went through a series of major land use changes, with agricultural and pastoral land abandonment, decrease in natural grassland, increase in forest cover both due to afforestation and reforestation programmes and increased urbanization (Behr et al, 2017; Boitani & Linnell, 2015; Fuchs et al, 2013), with subsequent concentration of the human population in urban areas. We expected to find a positive effect of conservation status and hunting legislation but little or no effect of protected areas as shown in previous studies (Santini et al, 2016; Tammeleht et al, 2020)
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