Coexistence in Europe: Lessons for East Asia?

Abstract

The East-West cold war is now irrational. It is out of touch with a world of complex interdependence. Nevertheless, cold war attitudes are sustained by regressive mindsets and the centrality given to nuclear deterrence. In place of the static thinking that has characterized the past this article offers a forward looking theory and practice of coexistence. This approach involves defining a long-term goal and establishing appropriate intermediate steps toward its achievement. The intermediate steps identified are “constructive engagement’’ (10-15 years) and “a legitimate international order” (15-30 years). The final goal is “stable peace,” a condition in which war is unlikely not because of a balance of nuclear terror but because of mutual satisfaction with the prevailing political situation. Progress towards the goals indicated requires a “process utopian” approach. The latter is pragmatic yet reformist. It seeks to identify and pursue benign courses while leaving the end-point uncertain. What exactly the structure of European security will look like must be settled by future generations; in the meantime it is necessary to concentrate on benevolent processes such as nonprovocative defense, common security, denuclearization, and arms restraint. The prospects are mixed, but the trends have never been more favorable. Stable coexistence in Europe is not a real possibility. The article concludes by offering a series of ideas about the future of East Asian security based on the previous discussion of the European situation. Emphasis is given to the importance of taking a long-term perspective, diplomatic patience and persistence, movement to non-provocative tactics, sensitivity to the dynamics of the “security dilemma” in military planning and arms control policy, denuclearization, confidence-building measures, and the consideration of an East Asian “Helsinki.” The prospects for progress in East Asia are not presently as bright as in Europe, but change, when it comes, can be rapid.