CO2 Reduction Policy Scenario in Transport Sector in Consideration of Consistency of Technological Innovations and Local Characteristics

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The study has been undertaken with a view to formulate appropriate policies for targeted CO2 reduction from transport sector. For this a two step approach is adopted. As a first step, a model for forecasting CO2 emissions from passenger cars by municipalities is developed. This model takes into account the car ownership and trip length model. The application of the proposed model to the municipalities of Japan show that CO2 emissions will continue to increase at the national level and the increase of these emissions is remarkable in local municipalities. As a second step the targeted total CO2 emissions of Japan are allocated to different municipalities under different sets of policy scenarios. The examination of the five type of ESTI policy scenarios show that the target CO2 emissions cannot be achieved in most municipalities except metropolis. Eight types of EST2 policy scenarios, considering the local characteristics are therefore examined. The examination of the proposed EST2 policy scenarios and their mixed scenarios shows that more extensive policies are required since the targeted CO2 emissions cannot be achieved only by EST2 policies.