CMIP5-Based Projection of Decadal and Seasonal Sea Surface Temperature Variations in East China Shelf Seas

Huiqiang Lu,Jingsheng Zhai,Cuicui Zhang,Chuan Xie

doi:10.3390/jmse9040367

Abstract

The East China Shelf Seas, comprising the Bohai Sea, the Yellow Sea, and the shelf region of East China Sea, play significant roles among the shelf seas of the Western North Pacific Ocean. The projection of sea surface temperature (SST) changes in these regions is a hot research topic in marine science. However, this is a very difficult task due to the lack of available long-term projection data. Recently, with the high development of simulation technology based on numerical models, the model intercomparison projects, e.g., Phase 5 of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), have become important ways of understanding climate changes. CMIP5 provides multiple models that can be used to estimate SST changes by 2100 under different representative concentration pathways (RCPs). This paper developed a CMIP5-based SST investigation framework for the projection of decadal and seasonal variation of SST in East China Shelf Seas by 2100. Since the simulation results of CMIP5 models may have degrees of errors, this paper uses hydrological observation data from World Ocean Atlas 2018 (WOA18) for model validation and correction. This paper selects seven representative ones including ACCESS1.3, CCSM4, FIO-ESM, CESM1-CAM5, CMCC-CMS, NorESM1-ME, and Max Planck Institute Earth System Model of medium resolution (MPI-ESM-MR). The decadal and seasonal SST changes in the next 100 years (2030, 2060, 2090) are investigated by comparing with the present analysis in 2010. The experimental results demonstrate that SST will increase significantly by 2100: the decadal SST will increase by about 1.55 °C, while the seasonal SST will increase by 1.03–1.95 °C.

Highlights

We found that in summer, the regions with significant sea surface temperature (SST) increases mainly are concentrated in the east of Qinhuangdao in Bohai, the shore of Northern Jiangsu Province in the Yellow Sea, and the Changjiang Estuary in the East China Sea, which is coincident with that in the decadal analysis
This paper investigated both decadal and seasonal SST variations in the East China Shelf Seas by 2100 using CMIP5 models under RCP4.5
Seven representative CMIP5 models were used in this paper, including ACCESS1.3, CCSM4, FIO-ESM, CESM1-CAM5, CMCC-CMS, NorESM1-ME, and MPI-ESM-MR

Summary

Introduction

Existing works mainly focused on the study of annual and decadal variations of the SST in the East China Shelf Seas without investigating the seasonal variations, which may affect ocean organisms and the ecological environment more seriously (e.g., the changes of species distribution and the move up of the phenophase). Existing works mainly referred to the Chinese coastal seas as the rectangle region of 0◦ N–45◦ N, 100◦ E–140◦ E, which is a very coarse region to study on the SST changes in the East China Shelf Seas To solve these problems, this paper establishes an SST analysis framework, which can be used for the projection of both decadal and seasonal SST variation in the East China Shelf Seas using high-resolution CMIP5 data.

Data and Study Region

Model Validation and Simulation Result Modification

Projection Results of Decadal SST Changes

Projection Results of Seasonal SST Changes

Conclusions