CMIP5 based Projection of Decadal Sea Surface Temperature Variations in East China Shelf Seas

Abstract

East China Shelf seas, comprising Bo-hai Sea, Yellow Sea and the shelf region of East China Sea, play significant roles among the shelf seas of Western North Pacific Ocean. The projection of sea surface temperature (SST) changes in these regions is a hot research topic in marine science. However, it is a very difficult task due to the lack of available long-term projection data. Recently, with the high development of simulation technology based on numerical models, the Phase 5 of Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) has become important ways in understanding climate changes. CMIP5 provides multiple models which can be used to estimate SST changes under different representative concentration pathways (RCPs). This paper selected seven representative CMIP5 models including ACCESSl.3, CCSM4, FIO-ESM, CESM1-CAM5, CMCC-CMS, NorESM1-ME and MPI-ESM-MR for the projection of decadal variation of SST in East China Shelf seas by 2100. Since the simulation results of CMIP5 models have degrees of errors, we used hydrological observation data from World Ocean Atlas 2013 version 2 (WOA13 V2) for model validation and modification. The decadal SST changes in the next 100 years (2030, 2060, 2090) are investigated by comparing with the present analysis in 2010. The experimental results demonstrate a significant SST increase in East China Shelf seas: ranges to 3.5°C in part of regions with an average increment of 1.55°C under RCP4.5.