Climatology of wind variability for the Shagaya region in Kuwait

Abstract

Electrical system operators utilizing wind energy production need accurate wind power forecasts to prepare for changes in power production. To understand the forecast problem and sources of forecast uncertainty, a climatology of the region of interest is needed. For Shagaya Renewable Energy Park in Kuwait, seasonal and diurnal wind patterns and the atmospheric phenomena that cause them are identified using observations from meteorological towers, surface weather stations, and wind turbines. A setup conducive to shamals increases hub-height wind speed by up to 3 m s-1 from May to August and thereby increases power production of the Shagaya wind turbines by 24%, in a season with higher energy demand for cooling homes and businesses. Near sunset, wind speed ramps up and remains faster throughout the night due to the prevalent nocturnal low-level jet. Wind speed ramps back down after sunrise when the nocturnal boundary layer is eroded by convective turbulence, which leads to more short-term fluctuations in wind speed and wind power during the day. Given knowledge on these seasonal and diurnal cycles of short-term and long-term wind power variability, wind power has clear potential to meet a significant portion of Kuwait's energy needs.