Abstract
Winter wheat is the main food crop in China. Gansu Province is a traditional winter wheat growing area, and its planting range is limited by the thermal conditions of winter. The average temperature in Gansu Province increased by 0.28°C per decade, higher than the China’s and global average, and the warming in winter was more obvious. Therefore, it is necessary to study the climate suitability and vulnerability of winter wheat planting in Gansu. In this paper, the maximum entropy model Maxent and Arcgis software are used to select six major climatic factors including annual total radiation, annual precipitation, the warmest monthly average temperature, the coldest monthly average temperature, annual average temperature, and annual extreme minimum temperature, which construct winter wheat planting distribution-climate relationship model that studies the climate suitability and vulnerability of winter wheat during the period 1961-2015. Studies have shown that the average cold weather and annual extreme minimum temperature are the most important climatic factors affecting winter wheat in Gansu, which can reflect the low temperature conditions that winter wheat can tolerate. However, the main winter wheat planting areas in Gansu Province are distributed in arid and semi-arid rain-fed agriculture areas. Precipitation and total annual radiation are also very important constraints. At the same time, climate change has little effect on winter wheat in Gansu Province, and the area of suitable area fluctuates slightly. It shows moderate adaptation in each evaluation period.
Highlights
Crop cultivation, as a production activity that relies heavily on climatic conditions, shows more pronounced vulnerability in the context of global warming (Burton et al, 2002; Ragab & Prudhomme, 2002; Alam et al, 2013)
Winter wheat is the main traditional food crop in China, and the winter wheat planting range is mainly limited by the wintering heat conditions
Applying the Maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model to study the climate suitability of winter wheat planting distribution in Gansu, we must first test the applicability of the MaxEnt model
Summary
As a production activity that relies heavily on climatic conditions, shows more pronounced vulnerability in the context of global warming (Burton et al, 2002; Ragab & Prudhomme, 2002; Alam et al, 2013). MaxEnt has gradually applied in computer science and statistics, especially in Natural language processing is widely used This theory can be expressed in bioecology as a species that, when unconstrained, will spread as much as possible, close to a uniform distribution, and can be used to predict the potential geographic distribution of a species (Phillips et al, 2006). Gansu winter wheat is mainly distributed in the Longdong Loess Plateau in Hedong, Gansu, the upper reaches of the Weihe River in the Loess Plateau in the west of Gansu, and the southern part of Gansu Province. It is one of the main food crops in Gansu Province. The limitation of thermal conditions makes it more necessary to study the climate suitability and vulnerability of winter wheat planting in Gansu in the context of climate warming
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