TEMPORAL TREND ANALYSIS OF TEMPERATURE DATA USING MANNKENDALL TEST AND SEN’S SLOPE ESTIMATOR

Abstract

Climate change is one of the most important issues among researchers, scientists, planners and politicians in the present times. Of all the climatic elements, temperature plays a major role in detecting climatic change. In this paper, MannKendall rank tests, Sen’s slope estimator and Lag-one serial correlation are used to demonstrate any existence of possible temperature trends in Ranchi and Lohardaga district of Jharkhand by analyzing the time series data of annual, seasonal and monthly average, maximum and minimum temperature from 1901 to 2002. The statistical tests are applied to monthly, seasonal and annual average minimum and maximum temperatures records. The analysis indicates that the average, maximum and minimum annual temperature records have a warming trend over the period 1901 to 2002. The study of linear trend indicated increasing trends in annual maximum, annual minimum and annual average temperatures. During 1901–2002 annual average, annual maximum and annual minimum temperatures increased about 0.0030C, 0.0020C to 0.0040C and 0.0030C respectively.