Abstract
North Africa is considered a climate change hot spot. Existing studies either focus on the physical aspects of climate change or discuss the social ones. The present article aims to address this divide by assessing and comparing the climate change vulnerability of Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia and linking it to its social implications. The vulnerability assessment focuses on climate change exposure, water resources, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. The results suggest that all countries are exposed to strong temperature increases and a high drought risk under climate change. Algeria is most vulnerable to climate change, mainly due to the country’s high sensitivity. Across North Africa, the combination of climate change and strong population growth is very likely to further aggravate the already scarce water situation. The so-called Arab Spring has shown that social unrest is partly caused by unmet basic needs of the population for food and water. Thus, climate change may become an indirect driver of social instability in North Africa. To mitigate the impact of climate change, it is important to reduce economic and livelihood dependence on rain-fed agriculture, strengthen sustainable land use practices, and increase the adaptive capacity. Further, increased regional cooperation and sub-national vulnerability assessments are needed.
Highlights
North Africa is often considered a “climate change hotspot” (e.g., Diffenbaugh and Giorgi 2012) that has been receiving increasing attention in recent years, from natural and social scientists
The present article contributes to this literature by assessing and comparing the climate change vulnerability of Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia and linking it to its social implications
A particular focus is placed on the impact of climate change on water resources, which are crucial to human livelihoods in North Africa
Summary
North Africa is often considered a “climate change hotspot” (e.g., Diffenbaugh and Giorgi 2012) that has been receiving increasing attention in recent years, from natural and social scientists. Several researchers have studied the impact of climate change on the water situation and agriculture. Schmitz et al (2013) project increased water scarcity in North Africa, while Alboghdady and El-Hendawy (2016) show that a 1% increase in temperature in the winter results in a 1.12% decrease in agricultural. This article is part of the Topical Collection on Climate change impacts in the Mediterranean.
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