Health Vulnerability Assessment of Heat waves in Korea

Abstract

Background and aims: Heat waves are well known to be associated with increases in mortality and the burden of heat-related illness in population. The health effects due to heat waves appear differently depending on the population characteristics and regions. However, there is limited regional information available to guide the public health adaptation plan and climate change decision-making. Therefore, regional health vulnerability of heat waves is assessed in this study. Methods: Health vulnerability related to heat waves is determined based on three components; climate change exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Vulnerability index (VI) for each region was calculated based on values of 19 variables identified for three components with weights from Delphi consensus of experts. VI was mapped for entire Korean peninsula from 2000s to 2100s, applying SRES A1B and RCP scenarios with assessment units of 232 local governments and results units of 16 aggregated areas. The contribution analyses of VI were performed to grasp contributable variables. Results: Climate change vulnerabilities related to heat waves showed large regional variations. Contribution of three components, climate change exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity, were 0.33, 0.28 and 0.28 respectively. VI was highly associated with socio-demographic characteristics and healthcare access conditions. Vulnerable areas are mostly distributed southern part of Korea in 2000s, and tend to be gradually moving northward as time goes by. Currently vulnerable areas appear to stay or be more vulnerable in the future. Conclusions: Overall vulnerability is predicted to be increasing over time. It is important to consider spatial data within a single country when evaluating climate change vulnerability for identifying cost-effective intervention and early planning of public health adaptation strategies.