Climate change risk assessment for the Republic of Korea: developing a systematic assessment methodology

Abstract

Climate change risks have become a major concern of climate change adaptation, and a systematic risk assessment is required as the first step as well as a key principle of national adaptation policy processes. Although many countries conducted risk assessments, a debate over a systematic assessment process continues, and results of the risk assessment provide limited information to making adaptation policies. Based on a case study of South Korea, this research aims to establish a national-level risk assessment process which includes systematic methodologies given the current limited time/resource and insufficient climate change information. A four-step risk assessment process is proposed: (1) collecting scientific evidence, (2) making list of preliminary risks, (3) making lists of risks and prioritising the risks, (4) categorising the risks. Enough scientific evidence and data about climate change risks of Korea were retained through first two steps, and three components of risk (hazard, exposure, vulnerability) are systematically involved by assessing the magnitude and adaptive capacity of risks. As results of the risks assessment, 93 national-level climate change risks of Korea are identified, and most high priorities in risks have high risk magnitude but low adaptive capacity. This research provided insights for direction of national adaptation policy of each sector by categorising the risks into four categories.