Climate Change Mitigation Potential of Wind Energy

Rebecca J Barthelmie,Sara C Pryor

doi:10.3390/cli9090136

Abstract

Global wind resources greatly exceed current electricity demand and the levelized cost of energy from wind turbines has shown precipitous declines. Accordingly, the installed capacity of wind turbines grew at an annualized rate of about 14% during the last two decades and wind turbines now provide ~6–7% of the global electricity supply. This renewable electricity generation source is thus already playing a role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions from the energy sector. Here we document trends within the industry, examine projections of future installed capacity increases and compute the associated climate change mitigation potential at the global and regional levels. Key countries (the USA, UK and China) and regions (e.g., EU27) have developed ambitious plans to expand wind energy penetration as core aspects of their net-zero emissions strategies. The projected climate change mitigation from wind energy by 2100 ranges from 0.3–0.8 °C depending on the precise socio-economic pathway and wind energy expansion scenario followed. The rapid expansion of annual increments to wind energy installed capacity by approximately two times current rates can greatly delay the passing of the 2 °C warming threshold relative to pre-industrial levels. To achieve the required expansion of this cost-effective, low-carbon energy source, there is a need for electrification of the energy system and for expansion of manufacturing and installation capacity.

Highlights

Introduction and Tomas BaležentisCurrent global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of 59.1 GtCO2e are dominated by fossil fuel combustion (38.0 GtCO2 ) associated primarily with electricity and heat generation (24% of GHG emissions) plus transformation and fugitive emissions (10%) [1]
The maturity of the wind energy industry with low-cost, low-carbon electricity generation means that the growth of wind energy penetration into global electricity generation systems has long been recognized as a potential mechanism to reduce climate forcing [3]
In earlier work (2014), we explored whether the enhanced deployment of wind energy could substantially impact climate change trajectories

Summary

Introduction

Current global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (including those from land-use change) of 59.1 GtCO2e are dominated by fossil fuel combustion (38.0 GtCO2 ) associated primarily with electricity and heat generation (24% of GHG emissions) plus transformation and fugitive emissions (10%) [1]. As 189 countries seek to implement the Paris climate agreement to reduce emissions of GHG including carbon dioxide (CO2 ) and limit the increase in global temperature from the pre-industrial baseline (∆T) to 2◦ C or less, decarbonization of the energy sector is a major goal [2]. The maturity of the wind energy industry with low-cost, low-carbon electricity generation means that the growth of wind energy penetration into global electricity generation systems has long been recognized as a potential mechanism to reduce climate forcing [3]. As CO2 emissions continue to accumulate in the atmosphere, we updated

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Conclusion