Forecast Assessment of Achieving Carbon Neutrality in the Russian Federation in View of Changes in Forestry and Land Use

Abstract

The article analyzes the problem of reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the Russian Federation by 2030 to 70% relative to the 1990 level. It is shown that the Russian Federation is one of the world’s leaders in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, while the goals set forth by the European Union to achieve carbon neutrality are currently not confirmed by the availability of resources and actually taken efforts. The Russian and foreign approaches to the formation of input data for calculating and accounting the absorption capacity of forestry are analyzed; the results of carbon dioxide absorption estimates performed using different techniques are given, and the balance of greenhouse gas emissions in the Russian Federation is evaluated taking into account land use, and changes in the land use and forestry. The results of the assessment of carbon dioxide absorption performed on the basis of the methodology developed by the Center for Ecology and Forest Productivity of the Russian Academy of Sciences are several times lower than those obtained using other techniques. The absorption capacity of Russian forests calculated by an international group of scientists exceeds the emission of greenhouse gases in the Russian Federation. According to calculations made by the Russian Research Institute for Silviculture and Mechanization of Forestry (VNIILM) and IIASA, the absorption capacity of forests is slightly less than the greenhouse gas emissions. The problems and prospects of accounting the reserve lands and forests that have grown on abandoned agricultural lands are described. The prospects for reducing greenhouse gas emissions owing to the development of solar and wind power plants are estimated, and the capital costs for the construction of wind and solar power plants are shown with and without taking into account energy storages. It has been determined that the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions through the development of wind and solar power plants entails significant financial costs and yields a smaller effect than in taking into account the absorption of carbon dioxide by forests grown on abandoned agricultural lands. Recommendations for achieving greenhouse gas emission targets are formulated, including full-valued consideration of the absorption capacity of reserve forests and farmlands overgrown with forests and shrubs after updating the information of the state forest register.