Climate change impacts on cattle production: analysis of cattle herders’ climate variability/change adaptation strategies in Nigeria

The increasing intensity and frequency of extreme weather events resulting from climate change have led to grid outages and other negative consequences. To ensure the resilience of buildings which serve as primary shelters for occupants, resilient strategies are being developed to improve their ability to withstand these extreme events (e.g., building upgrades and renewable energy generators and storage). However, a crucial step towards creating a resilient built environment is accurately estimating building performance during such conditions using historical extreme climate change-induced weather events. To conduct Building Performance Simulation (BPS) in extreme conditions, such as weather events induced by climate change, it is essential to utilize Actual Meteorological Year (AMY) weather files instead of Typical Meteorological Year (TMY) files. AMY files capture the precise climatic conditions during extreme weather events, enabling accurate simulation of such scenarios. These weather files provide valuable data that can be used to assess the vulnerabilities and resilience of buildings to extreme weather events. By analyzing past events and their impacts using BPS tools, we can gain insights into the specific weaknesses and areas that require improvement. This approach applies to both existing buildings needing climate change-resilient retrofits and new building designs that must be compatible with future climatic conditions. Moreover, the intensification and frequency increase of these extreme weather events makes developing adaptation and resilient-building measures imperative. This involves understanding the potential losses that households may experience due to the intensification of extreme events and developing farsighted coping strategies and climate-proof resilient-building initiatives. However, addressing the knowledge gap caused by the absence of an AMY weather file dataset of extreme events is essential. This will allow for accurate BPS during past extreme climate change-induced weather events. To fill this gap, this article introduces a comprehensive .epw format weather file dataset focusing on historical extreme weather events in Canada. This collection encompasses a diverse array of past extreme climate change occurrences in various locations, with potential for future expansion to include additional locations and countries. This dataset enables energy simulations for different types of buildings and considers a diverse range of historical weather conditions, allowing for better estimation of thermal performance.

Smallholder farmers in Nepal are vulnerable to climate change-related extreme weather events. Adaptation in the agriculture sector is needed to mitigate social, economic, and ecological impacts from increasing levels of hazard activity. To examine this issue, a household survey of 350 farmers in the Terai region of Nepal was carried out to assess farmers’ risk perceptions towards three common extreme weather events (floods, cold spells, and heat waves) and to explore their intended responses to cope with future impacts. The intended common adaptation strategies include changes in farm management, seeking off-farm employment, emergency management planning, purchasing crop insurance, and the raising of awareness. Threat appraisal is the strongest predictor of the number of intended adaptation strategies adopted in response to slow-onset hazards (heat waves and cold spells), while coping appraisal is the major predictor of the number of intended adaptation strategies adopted to mitigate flood risk, a rapid onset hazard. Crop insurance and off-farm employment are farmers’ most preferred flood adaptation strategies, while crop insurance is the most preferred adaptation strategy for heat waves and cold spells. Other variables such as the number of past implemented strategies, experience with extreme events, community organisation membership, and access to credit and extension services were also significantly associated with farmers’ choices for adaptation strategies in response to the three extreme events. This information can be used to tailor community-centred communication about potential threats from different extreme weather events and government technical and financial support, which will be crucial for farmers to adapt effectively to climate change-related weather extremes.

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to analyze the seasonal spatiotemporal climate variability in the Borena zone of Ethiopia and its effects on agriculture and livestock production. By examining these climate variables in relation to global sea surface temperatures (SST) and atmospheric pressure systems, the study seeks to understand the underlying mechanisms driving local climate variability. Furthermore, it assesses how these climate variations impact crop yields, particularly wheat and livestock production, providing valuable insights for developing effective adaptation strategies and policies to enhance food security and economic stability in the region.Design/methodology/approachThe design and methodology of this study involve a multifaceted approach to analyzing seasonal spatiotemporal climate variability in the Borena zone of Ethiopia. The research uses advanced statistical techniques, including rotated empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and rotated principal component analysis (RPCA), to identify and quantify significant patterns in seasonal rainfall, temperature and drought indices over the period from 1981 to 2022. These methods are used to reveal the spatiotemporal variations and trends in climate variables. To understand the causal mechanisms behind these variations, the study correlates seasonal rainfall data with global SST and examines atmospheric pressure systems and wind vectors. In addition, the impact of climate variability on agricultural and livestock production is assessed by linking observed climate patterns with changes in crop yields, particularly wheat and livestock productivity. This comprehensive approach integrates statistical analysis with environmental and agricultural data to provide a detailed understanding of climate dynamics and their practical implications.FindingsThe findings of this study reveal significant seasonal spatiotemporal climate variability in the Borena zone of Ethiopia, characterized by notable patterns and trends in rainfall, temperature and drought indices from 1981 to 2022. The analysis identified that over 84% of the annual rainfall occurs during the March to May (MAM) and September to November (SON) seasons, with MAM contributing approximately 53% and SON over 31%, highlighting these as the primary rainfall periods. Significant spatiotemporal variations were observed, with northwestern (35.4%), southern (34.9%) and northeastern (19.3%) are dominant variability parts of the zone during MAM season, similarly southeastern (48.7%), and northcentral (37.8%) are dominant variability parts of the zone during SON season. Trends indicating that certain subregions experience more pronounced changes in climate variables in both seasons. Correlation with global SST and an examination of atmospheric pressure systems elucidated the mechanisms driving these variations, with significant correlation with the southern and central part of Indian Ocean. This study also found that fluctuations in climate variables significantly impact crop production, particularly wheat and livestock productivity in the region, underscoring the need for adaptive strategies to mitigate adverse effects on agriculture and food security.Research limitations/implicationsThe implications of this study highlight the need for robust adaptation strategies to mitigate the effects of climate variability. Detailed research on seasonal climate patterns and the specific behaviors of livestock and crops is essential. Gaining a thorough understanding of these dynamics is critical for developing resilient adaptation strategies tailored to the unique ecological and economic context of the Borana zone. Future research should focus on seasonal climate variations and their implications to guide sustainable development and livelihood adjustments in the region.Originality/valueThis study offers significant originality and value by providing a detailed analysis of seasonal spatiotemporal climate variability in the Borena zone of Ethiopia, using advanced statistical techniques such as rotated EOF and RPCA. By integrating these methods with global SST data and atmospheric pressure systems, the research delivers a nuanced understanding of how global climatic factors influence local weather patterns. The study’s novel approach not only identifies key trends and patterns in climate variables over an extensive historical period but also links these findings to practical outcomes in crop and livestock production. This connection is crucial for developing targeted adaptation strategies and policies, thereby offering actionable insights for enhancing agricultural practices and food security in the region. The originality of this work lies in its comprehensive analysis and practical relevance, making it a valuable contribution to both climate science and regional agricultural planning.

BACKGROUND: Island communities such as Puerto Rico (PR) are profoundly impacted by climate extremes. Patients with chronic disease, particularly cancer, have unique needs and challenges in the aftermath of extreme weather events. Understanding cancer patients’ barriers, knowledge, risks, and vulnerabilities are essential to develop equitable adaptation strategies. This research aims to investigate the perceptions and experiences of cancer patients associated with extreme weather events over the past 10 years in Puerto Rico (PR). METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study via survey questionnaires (April 22, 2023-June 8, 2023) among adults aged ≥21 years from Puerto Rico who are cancer patients/survivors (n=207). A total of 23 questions listed on the survey were used to collect information on variables of interest which included demographic characteristics, information on extreme weather event experiences, and attitude towards climate change. Using the data collected, descriptive statistics were used to describe the study population and multivariable logistic regression models were used to evaluate the associations of interest (IRB approval # 2023-04-101). RESULTS: The average age of individuals recruited is 56.3 years ±13.5 SD, 79.7% are female, 65.2% reported having additional chronic diseases, and 85.0% have more than a high-school education. Regarding extreme weather events, 99% of cancer patients and survivors reported floods, including coastal, fluvial, and urban floods, impacted their communities, 76% reported tropical cyclones impacted their residences and communities, and 72% reported extreme heat impacted both their residences and communities in the last 10 years. Additionally, the most common problems encountered in the aftermath of these extreme weather events were water (88.4%) and electricity service interruption (91.4%), as well as water (88.9%) and electricity service interruption (77.1%). Most participants reported feeling very and extremely worried about their health in the face of climate change (75.0%) and feeling concerned about climate change (85.0%). After adjusting for age, sex, and education, logistic regression models showed that participants with more than one cancer type were more likely to be worried about their health in the face of climate change (OR=2.40,95% CI=1.06-5.35). CONCLUSION: Study findings highlight the burden of extreme weather events and the problems encountered in the aftermath of such events on cancer patients in Puerto Rico. This population expresses concern and worry about climate change and their health, respectively. This information is important for cancer control and emphasizes the need for targeted interventions and management strategies to remove detrimental and avoidable impacts on cancer populations. Citation Format: Jimena Perez, Pablo A. Méndez-Lázaro, Fabiola A. Rivera-Gastón, Ana P. Ortiz. Assessing the impact of extreme climate weather events on cancer patients in Puerto Rico: A cross-sectional study [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 16th AACR Conference on the Science of Cancer Health Disparities in Racial/Ethnic Minorities and the Medically Underserved; 2023 Sep 29-Oct 2;Orlando, FL. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2023;32(12 Suppl):Abstract nr A114.

In the last decade, the WHO European Region has been struck by various extreme weather events. The dramatic political, social, environmental and health consequences have stimulated debate on whether appropriate action can prevent the health effects of such extreme weather events. Based on our knowledge of climate change, more extreme weather and climate events will occur in the coming years, and they are likely to be more severe. International collaboration is needed to evaluate and target actions better. Many lessons have been learned from early warning and information systems. In preparation for the Fourth Ministerial Conference on Environment and Health in Budapest in 2004, the WHO European Centre for Environment and Health of the WHO Regional Office for Europe and the European Environment Agency (EEA) organized a meeting entitled “Extreme weather events and public health responses” in Bratislava, Slovakia, on 9–10 February 2004 to exchange information regarding the 2002 floodings and the 2003 heat waves as well as to develop recommendations on public health and environmental responses to climate extremes. This paper reviews the contributions from the Bratislava meeting and summarizes the policy recommendations that were developed in a working document for the Fourth Ministerial Conference. Climate variability and extremes are discussed, as are country case studies and experience with floods, heat and cold waves in various European countries; some of the lessons learned are summarized in response to extreme events.

Climate change related extreme events present significant threats against the sustainability of forest-based livelihoods. Adaptive capacities and coping strategies of forest residents in Malawi towards climate change and extreme weather events were analyzed. Purposive sampling was used to select key informants while random sampling was employed to sample household heads or older member of the household (n = 422) involved in the household survey. Questionnaire administration, interviews and focus group discussions were used to collect the primary data. Cross tabulation of frequencies, Pearson Chi-square tests, and Binary logistic regression tests were used for the data analysis. Results showed that forest residents have always employed different adaptation and coping strategies during different climate extreme events over the years. Winter cropping (Dimba) around streams and wells, scored 66 % in Mchinji whilst the shifting of crop planting periods to coincide with rainy seasons topped the list in Mangochi (55 %) against droughts and erratic rainfall, respectively. Household satisfaction with water supply facilities and communication services dictated the respondents’ choice of the coping strategies employed. Furthermore, household human capital enhanced the adaptive capacity of forest residents. In conclusion, institutional services, social networks and human capital resources are important in devising climate coping and adaptation strategies hence recommending for more sustainable and transformative adaptation and coping strategies that can withstand projected climate change and weather-related events.

Climate change is a major source of concern in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, and migration is often understood as one of several strategies used by households to respond to changes in climate and environmental conditions, including extreme weather events. Other coping and adaptation strategies include changing the household’s sources of livelihood, and selling assets or taking other emergency measures in cases of losses due to extreme weather events. Yet while there is a burgeoning literature on climate change and migration and other adaptation strategies worldwide, the evidence available for the MENA region remains limited, in part because of a lack of survey and other data. This chapter is based in large part on new data collected in 2011 in Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, Syria, and Yemen. Household surveys were implemented in two climate affected areas in each country. In addition, qualitative focus groups were also implemented in both urban and rural areas. Finally, complementary work was completed using existing data sources for Morocco and Yemen. The chapter provides a summary of some of the main findings from these various sources of data, focusing on household perceptions about climate change and extreme weather events, migration, other household coping and adaptation strategies, and government and community responses. Overall, households do perceive important change in the climate, and many have been affected by extreme weather events with resulting losses in income, crops, livestock, or fish catchment. The coping and adaptation strategies used by households to deal with shocks are diverse but limited, as are the community and government programs which could help households better cope with and adapt to climate change. In terms of migration, in the areas affected by climate change and weather shocks, the analysis suggests that climate factors may account for between one tenth and one fifth of the overall level of migration observed today, but this is likely to increase as climatic conditions continue to deteriorate. While migrants appreciate the opportunities that migration offer, their living conditions and ability to be well integrated in their areas of destination is far from being guaranteed.

Climatic changes lead to many extreme weather events throughout the globe. These extreme weather events influence our behavior, exposing us to different environmental conditions, such as poor indoor quality. Poor indoor air quality (IAQ) poses a significant concern in the modern era, as people spend up to 90% of their time indoors. Ventilation influences key IAQ elements such as temperature, relative humidity, and particulate matter (PM). Children, considered a vulnerable group, spend approximately 30% of their time in educational settings, often housed in old structures with poorly maintained ventilation systems. Extreme weather events lead young students to stay indoors, usually behind closed doors and windows, which may lead to exposure to elevated levels of air pollutants. In our research, we aim to demonstrate how real-time monitoring of air pollutants and other environmental parameters under extreme weather is important for regulating the indoor environment. A study was conducted in a school building with limited ventilation located in an arid region near the Red Sea, which frequently suffers from high PM concentrations. In this study, we tracked the indoor environmental conditions and air quality during the entire month of May 2022, including an extreme outdoor weather event of sandstorms. During this month, we continuously monitored four classrooms in an elementary school built in 1967 in Eilat. Our findings indicate that PM2.5 was higher indoors (statistically significant) by more than 16% during the extreme event. Temperature was also elevated indoors (statistically significant) by more than 5%. The parameters’ deviation highlights the need for better indoor weather control and ventilation systems, as well as ongoing monitoring in schools to maintain healthy indoor air quality. This also warrants us as we are approaching an era of climatic instability, including higher occurrence of similar extreme events, which urge us to develop real-time responses in urban areas.

Multi-impacts of climate change and mitigation strategies in Nigeria: agricultural production and food security.

In Australia, wheat production occurs on over 13 million hectares, producing on average 19 million tonnes of wheat per year. Extreme weather events, such as frost and heat shock (short period of very high temperatures (>35°C)), can reduce wheat yields and represent a substantial management challenge. Damage due to frost and heat shock is greatest at ear emergence and around anthesis causing significant reductions in grain number and yield potential. Heat shock can also significantly reduce grain weight during the grain fill period when the risk of heat is greatest. Paddock-based crop models currently used to simulate crop production do not adequately account for the impact of extreme weather events such as frost and heat shock on yield components. While it is feasible to construct crop modules which capture this impact by extreme short term weather events, we felt it was important to quantify the frequency and spatial extent of the problem. This was important in determining whether the frequency and extent of potential grain losses from extreme weather events warranted the inclusion of added parameter input complexity within crop models. By taking into account the interactions between climate and crop phenology we were able to categorise areas as frequently affected by either frost or heat shock, those areas affected by both heat and frost and finally those areas which were rarely affected by either. Strategies to reduce the risks of extreme events will potentially be different for each of these regions. This paper investigates the spatial extent of where there is potential for improvements to the grains industry by having crop models which account for extreme heat and frost impacts linked to the key phenological crop stages. By incorporating phenological crop development, initiated by the autumn-break our analysis has established the actual frequency of overlap between extreme events and key phenological stages each year. This is important in determining the value of developing heat and frost modules to incorporate into crop models. To quantify the risk frequency of extreme heat and frost events across southern Australia's wheat growing regions the Catchment Analysis Tool (CAT, DEPI Victoria) was used. The study area (ca. 68 million hectares) incorporated agricultural land within the 200-1000 mm annual rainfall region and was significantly larger than the actual area sown to wheat annually. Two key periods were considered (a) a two week period centered on anthesis (50% of crop flowering) and (b) grain fill, for mid-season wheat variety using 50 years historical climate data. Based on our assumption of sowing at the autumn break, the occurrence of frost around anthesis and extreme heat during the grain fill period were important both in terms of frequency of occurrence and spatial area affected. Across the study region approximately 27% (ca. 18.5 million hectares) had a greater than 1:3 chance of both frost and extreme heat occurring at key crop phenological times, while 29% of the study area was generally affected by heat only during grain fill and 32% was generally affect by frost only. Additionally 12% (ca. 8 million hectares) had a less than 1:3 frequency of both frost and extreme heat occurring at key crop phenological times.

Climate change represents the greatest threat to human health, with both direct and indirect effects.  The direct increase of deaths, due to extreme weather and climate events, the emergence and spread of infectious diseases related to changing temperature, habitat and precipitation patterns, and eventually climate shocks and growing stress and anxiety that are affecting mental health. Moreover, extreme weather events cause issues on our health systems and infrastructures, reducing capacity to provide health coverage.   An increasing awareness on adverse effects of climate change is leading to an update of the EU policy framework through the introduction of  the EU Green Deal, a ‘package’ of directive, policies and strategies to ensure planning, monitoring and reporting of progress towards responsive climate adaptation and climate neutrality; however, a clear demonstration of the health-relevant outcomes of climate policies and actions is still missing, and current policies do not properly consider human health protection.   The study is developed within the Horizon Europe-funded project TRIGGER, aimed at deepening the understanding of the linkage between climate change and health and advancing society uptake at policy level.  Starting from mapping and screening the existing climate-related policies and measures at European level, this study assesses the integration of health in such documents. Specifically, through a keyword-based content analysis, it evaluates the integration of health-relevant considerations in 11 European plans and strategies, referring to climate mitigation and adaptation, environmental sustainability and biodiversity conservation. To establish to what extent they consider the direct and indirect impacts of climate change on human health, a qualitative assessment of health integration is performed, exploring also, when available, cost-benefits estimation to possible health impacts and health-related indicators developed.   The results show that extreme events, such as heat waves and droughts, heavy precipitation and flooding, are the climate-related hazards mostly mentioned in relation to health, even though the policy integration remains limited. Indeed, just few policies contain references to physical health impacts determined by climate change, such as infectious and vector borne diseases, injuries from extreme weather events and cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, while social and mental health effects are even less considered.    

Production variability and adaptation strategies of Ugandan smallholders in the face of climate variability and market shocks

Global climate change is manifest by local-scale changes in precipitation and temperature patterns, including the frequency of extreme weather events (EWEs). EWEs are associated with a myriad range of adverse environmental and societal consequences, including negative impacts to agriculture and food production. This study focuses on EWEs and their effect on adaptation strategies by potato and onion farmers in Zeeland, a Dutch coastal province in the Rhine delta that can serve as a model for other intensive agricultural landscapes in industrialized nations impacted by extreme weather events. The research approach combines quantitative trend analysis of long-term climatic data (temperature, precipitation) with a formal survey of Zeelandic farmers to statistically test four specific hypotheses regarding the frequency of EWEs in the Netherlands and farmer awareness and adaptation.Trend analyses reveal a strong (statistically significant) increase in extreme heat, a small increase in extreme rainfall and drought, and a strong decrease in frost occurrence. Survey results indicate Zeelandic farmers perceive high risk and awareness of changes to the frequency of EWEs. Many farmers have experienced financial losses from EWEs, particularly between 2017 and 2020. For extreme heat, droughts, and frost, the proportion of farmers that incurred financial damages annually is statistically correlated to the actual occurrence of EWEs. Farmers who incurred more financial losses between 2000 and 2020 due to heat and lack of frost had a higher risk perception of these extremes. Further, almost all farmers have already implemented one or more adaptation strategies. A third of surveyed farmers reduced or stopped with potato and onion cultivation in response to climate change and EWEs. Awareness, exposure to, and risk perception of EWEs contribute to adaptation support by farmers. The high perceived risk of climate change and EWEs among respondents and the high incidence of financial losses from extremes in the past two decades highlights the importance of adaptation in the agricultural sector, including in temperate regions where growing seasons are expanding. Study results support the current ‘Rural Development Program’ and future ‘National Strategic Plan’ policies in the Netherlands, both part of the European Union's Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), that provides accessibility to adaptation measures for farmers to avoid financial loss.

Natural disasters and extreme weather events have been of great societal importance throughout history and often brought everyday life to a catastrophic halt, in a way sometimes comparable to wars and epidemics, only without the lead time. Extreme weather events with large impacts serve as an anchor point of the collective memory of the population in the affected area. Every northern German of the right age remembers the storm surge of 1962 and where they were at the time and has friends or family effected by the event. The “dust bowl” of the 1930s with extensive droughts and heat waves shaped the life of a generation in the United States, and the Sahel droughts in the 1960s and 1970s led to famine and dislocation of population on a massive scale the region arguably never quite recovered from. Hurricane Hyian in 2013 is said to have directly influenced the outcome of the annual Conference of the Parties (COP) United Nation Framework Convention for Climate Change Negotiations in Warsaw, leading to the inclusion of a mechanism to deal with loss and damage from climate-related disasters. Though earthquakes are still fairly unpredictable on short timescales, this is not the case for weather events. Weather forecasts today are so good that we normally know the time and location of the landfall of a hurricane within a 100-mile radius days in advance. Improvements in the prediction of slow-onset events such as droughts (which depend on the rainfall over a large region and whole season) are less striking but have still improved dramatically in the late 20th and early 21st centuries. One of the major reasons for the large increase in the accuracy of weather forecasts is the exponential increase in computing power, which allows scientists to predict and study extreme weather events using complex computer models, simulating possible weather events under certain conditions to understand the statistics of and physical mechanisms behind extreme events. Extreme events are by definition rare and thus impossible to understand from historical records of weather observation alone. Despite the progress on our understanding of and ability to predict extreme weather events, substantial uncertainties remain. Two aspects are of particular importance. Firstly, we know that the climate is changing, having observed almost a one-degree increase in global mean temperature. However, global mean temperature doesn’t kill anyone, extreme weather events do. Their frequency and intensity is changing and will continue to change, but the extent of these changes depends on a host of both global and local factors. Secondly, whether or not a rare weather event leads to extreme impacts depends largely on the vulnerability and exposure of the affected societies. If these are high, even a perfectly forecasted weather event leads to disaster.

Assessment and planning for emerging impacts of climate change on species