Climate Change Impact On Upper Layang Reservoir Operation

Abstract

The goal of reservoir operation policies is to get the most out of the water that can be stored and delivered as a water supply. Water shortages and floods may become more common in Malaysia because of climate change and global warming. The biggest impediment to developing reliable water storage and supplies in Sg Layang Reservoir, Johor, Malaysia, is a lack of water. Forecasting reservoir water levels is critical for storage management, particularly in water supply systems. As a result, the objective of this research is to create a reservoir simulation model using the Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) to generate water levels to compare with observed water levels and to predict water levels using input variables such as future daily rainfall to examine the reservoir’s performance under changing conditions. Rainfall data from 2011 is utilized to calibrate the system, while data from 2012 to 2013 is used to validate it. The observed rainfall data was applied to the Sungai Layang watershed region. The correlation coefficient, R2, was employed to show the watershed’s best value. The calibration procedure has an R2 of 0.91, whereas the validation procedure has an R2 of 0.88. The accuracy of the model is satisfactory, as the R2 is near to 1.0, and calibration parameters can be employed in the following design processes, according to the analysis completed by HEC-HMS applications. The simulation was carried out using the same parameters in 2017, 2030, and 2050 with four distinct scenarios to evaluate water level behavior using future rainfall data. According to the simulation, most of the water level in the future will be below the crucial threshold of 23.5m. The findings reveal that climate change has an impact on reservoir functioning in terms of rainfall intensity.