Climate Change Consequences on Rain-Fed Wheat Farming and its Relationship with Rent in Iran

Abstract

Introduction: Today, the effects of climate change in the short and long term are one of the most challenging issues in the world. The negative effects of climate change are more severe in countries with drier climates and lower incomes. Accordingly, this article aims to investigate the consequences of climate change and its relationship with rent in case of rainfed wheat crop. Materials and Methods: To investigate the presence of a nonlinear relationship between climate change and rainfed wheat rent, using agricultural information during 2002-2017 and Ricardian approach and Panel data technique was used. Findings: Based on the model of fixed effects, cumulative rainfall of harvest, the square of the temperature of the harvest season, autumn temperature, rainfall of autumn, the product of temperature and cumulative precipitation in June, have had a positive and significant effect on rent and product of temperature and rainfall of harvest season, June temperature and square of the temperature of harvest season had a significant negative effect on rent. Also, with increasing harvest temperature, a nonlinear relationship between temperature and rent is confirmed. With one degree increase in the temperature of the harvest season to the critical point of 36.3 degrees C, rent increases by 0.06% and with increasing temperature after this point, it will decrease. Conclusion: the development of cultivars resistant to reduced rainfall and high temperatures can help prevent rent reduction. Training and leadership in all economic sub-sectors and the development of a comprehensive plan and practical action to adapt and deal with this phenomenon is necessary to reduce its adverse effects.