Climate change and rural–urban migration in the Brazilian Northeast region

Abstract

Climate change and its potentially harmful effects on agricultural production, income, and subsistence might change the incentive and capability of the population to remain in rural areas or to migrate to urban locations. Using census micro-data in combination with high-resolution climate information, we explore the impacts of climate change on rural–urban migration in the Brazilian Northeast region. Results from a gravity model estimation reveal that the climate–migration relationship depends on the agricultural income levels of rural origin areas and the educational attainment of the rural population. Specifically, our results indicate that the intensification of climate adversities may have contributed to boosting migration from rural areas with lower socioeconomic vulnerability. In contrast, in the most deprived rural areas, harmful climate effects may have resulted in the reduction of this type of migration flow. Nevertheless, our findings suggest that education might attenuate the suppressing effects of adverse climate conditions on migration in highly vulnerable rural areas, suggesting a viable pathway to overcome mobility constraints. Our findings emphasize the complexity of climate–migration linkages and conclude that the debate on climate change and migration should no longer consider that climate change invariably results in migration, but also should investigate who is able to implement and take advantage of migration as an adaptation strategy. Policies to address issues related to climate-induced migration must focus on both facilitating migration and assisting vulnerable segments of the population who remain in place, as the less-educated rural population whose livelihoods depend on the agricultural activity.