Impact of Water Security, Climate Change and Population Growth on Rural-Urban Migration in Sub-Saharan Africa

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Africa is considered to be the second driest continent in the world after Australia. Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is the whole of Africa except North Africa; SSA covers around 80% of Africa’s total land area with a population of around 0.9 billion people. The continued population growth poses a challenge to systems that supply services in SSA; for example, in 1950, less than 200 million people lived in Sub-Saharan Africa, but in 2016 the population in SSA has increased to around 1 billion. Since the beginning of the 21st century, there has been a rising sense of urgency about the need to address migration; movement of refugees and their displacement (Cross et al., 2006). There are many factors that influence the movement of people. This thesis examines some of these factors in depth to understand the tendency for migration both to urban from rural and from rural to urban – the latter being more important. Presently, 14 African countries (including 9 from SSA) are experiencing water stress, and it is predicted that the number of water stressed countries in SSA will increase to 25 countries by the year 2025 (Mejia et al., 2012; UN, 2008). SSA experiences rainfall fluctuations and rising temperatures that have been impacting the agricultural production over time. It is predicted that SSA may experience extreme rainfall events and such extreme precipitation may become more frequent and intense over time. Local rural water availability conditions may also face more challenges; for example, Nigeria water supply systems have failed to cope with the rapid population growth over time. In 1991, 79% (25 million) of Nigerian people living in urban areas had access to clean water, yet 17 years later it has fallen to 75%, but now 55 million people have access to fresh water. The literature reviewed showed a number of gaps in research with regards to water security. Essentially, this thesis investigates how water security, climate change and population growth are related to the people movement in and around SSA. This study uses quantitative type univariate and multivariate time series methodologies to investigate the links among the abovementioned variables. The main research aim of this major study as stated led to the examination, study and analysis of long term time series data concerning rainfall, temperature, populations; including their relationships to rural-urban and urban to rural migration time series data. The study developed univariate and multivariate time series models that are appropriate for trend studies, and prediction of the changes that may occur to the climatic and people movement variables in the future. The study identified associations and correlations between climatic and people movement variables. The findings of this study indicate that rainfall and temperature variabilities do indeed impact the movement of people in SSA in Somalia, Ethiopia and Democratic Republic of Congo in particular. The results of the time series analyses suggest that rainfall has a greater impact on rural-urban migration in Somalia, Ethiopia and Democratic Republic of Congo compared to that of the temperature; although a combined effect is also noted. The people movement in these countries responded to the unit shocks in rainfall or temperature. More importantly, the study notes that number of people leaving from rural areas outnumber those relocating to rural areas. This means that migration in selected countries and in SSA in general has net flows towards the cities. Due to limitations of the migration data availability, author used vital statistical method to indirectly measure net migration in selected countries. The study provides an essential breakthrough of the area of the climate change impact on rural urban migration in SSA. The findings can aid different levels of decision making authorities, research and educational institutions in the regions as well as regional and international organization in terms of what may be done to stem the flow away from rural areas. Hence, there is a need for more site specific research projects to further examine interactions and associations between climate change and human migration within SSA and member counties. Higher level studies in the future should seek funding from agencies to collect primary data from relevant government departments as well as climate related research institutions in SSA.