Evaluating migration as successful adaptation to climate change: Trade-offs in well-being, equity, and sustainability

Abstract

The role of migration as one potential adaptation to climate change is increasingly recognized, but little is known about whether migration constitutes successful adaptation, under what conditions, and for whom. Based on a review of emerging migration science, we propose that migration is a successful adaptation to climate change if it increases well-being, reduces inequality, and promotes sustainability. Well-being, equity, and sustainability represent entry points for identifying trade-offs within and across different social and temporal scales that could potentially undermine the success of migration as adaptation. We show that assessment of success at various scales requires the incorporation of consequences such as loss of population in migration source areas, climate risk in migration destination, and material and non-material flows and economic synergies between source and destination. These dynamics and evaluation criteria can help make migration visible and tractable to policy as an effective adaptation option. The role of migration as one potential adaptation to climate change is increasingly recognized, but little is known about whether migration constitutes successful adaptation, under what conditions, and for whom. Based on a review of emerging migration science, we propose that migration is a successful adaptation to climate change if it increases well-being, reduces inequality, and promotes sustainability. Well-being, equity, and sustainability represent entry points for identifying trade-offs within and across different social and temporal scales that could potentially undermine the success of migration as adaptation. We show that assessment of success at various scales requires the incorporation of consequences such as loss of population in migration source areas, climate risk in migration destination, and material and non-material flows and economic synergies between source and destination. These dynamics and evaluation criteria can help make migration visible and tractable to policy as an effective adaptation option. A key emerging insight into the challenge of adapting to climate change impacts is that many interventions fail to produce positive outcomes, either in terms of being ineffective at reducing risk or creating unforeseen consequences for others.1Eriksen S. Schipper E.L.F. Scoville-Simonds M. Vincent K. Adam H.N. Brooks N. Harding B. Khatri D. Lenaerts L. Liverman D. et al.Adaptation interventions and their effect on vulnerability in developing countries: help, hindrance or irrelevance?.World Dev. 2021; 141: 105383https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105383Crossref Scopus (171) Google Scholar This is a worrying development in the search for climate-resilient pathways and for the emerging practice of adaptation to climate change. Most often, those facing the consequences of current or future risks are, in effect, on their own, needing to make the most of their circumstances. There are, therefore, risks of both ineffective interventions and risks of ineffective individual strategies for dealing with long-term climate changes. Increasingly, climate risks may be part of other long-term shifts in population and in short-term displacement. Migration is therefore increasingly recognized as a potentially effective means of shifting, avoiding, and spreading risks from climate change impacts.2Black R. Bennett S.R.G. Thomas S.M. Beddington J.R. Beddington J.R. Migration as an adaptation.Nature. 2011; 478: 447-449Crossref PubMed Scopus (0) Google Scholar,3Black R. Adger W.N. Arnell N.W. Dercon S. Geddes A. Thomas D. The effect of environmental change on human migration.Glob. Environ. Change. 2011; 21: 3-11https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.10.001Crossref Scopus (635) Google Scholar,4ForesightForesight: Migration and Global Environmental Change (2011) Final Project Report.2011Google Scholar Much research has already established success criteria for adaptation. Holistic conceptualizations recognize the need for increasing whole-system resilience and reducing the risks of and vulnerability to climate change impacts without compromising sustainability.5Doria M.d.F. Boyd E. Tompkins E.L. Adger W.N. Using expert elicitation to define successful adaptation to climate change.Environ. Sci. Policy. 2009; 12: 810-819https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2009.04.001Crossref Scopus (130) Google Scholar,6Osbahr H. 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Change. 2005; 15: 77-86https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2004.12.005Crossref Scopus (1895) Google Scholar In-depth reviews of experience, by the IPCC and others, show that very often, adaptation action or interventions reproduce or redistribute pre-existing vulnerability, or create new vulnerability, especially for already marginalized groups1Eriksen S. Schipper E.L.F. Scoville-Simonds M. Vincent K. Adam H.N. Brooks N. Harding B. Khatri D. Lenaerts L. Liverman D. et al.Adaptation interventions and their effect on vulnerability in developing countries: help, hindrance or irrelevance?.World Dev. 2021; 141: 105383https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105383Crossref Scopus (171) Google Scholar,8Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangePörtner R.H.-O. Roberts D.C. Tignor M. Poloczanska E.S. Mintenbeck K. Alegría A. Craig M. Langsdorf S. Löschke S. Möller V. Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, 2022Google Scholar Less work has been done on evaluating the success of autonomous adaptation strategies that are deployed by households and individuals in response to climate change impacts. This calls for a system-wide assessment of migration as adaptation. Migration here means moving place of residence—it encompasses what are judged to be voluntary moves by individuals and households, either temporarily (e.g., seasonal or circular migration) or long term, as well as involuntary and often temporary displacement as a result of unforeseen circumstances including extreme weather events.9McLeman R. Wrathall D. Gilmore E. Thornton P. Adams H. Gemenne F. Conceptual framing to link climate risk assessments and climate-migration scholarship.Clim. Change. 2021; 165: 24https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03056-6Crossref Scopus (24) Google Scholar It includes movement within the same country, as well as to neighboring countries or other international destinations. Importantly, migration in the context of climate change takes place on a voluntary-forced continuum, encompassing categories that are fluid and non-exclusive.10Vinke K. Bergmann J. Blocher J. Upadhyay H. Hoffmann R. Migration as adaptation?.Migr. Stud. 2020; 8: 626-634https://doi.org/10.1093/migration/mnaa029Crossref Scopus (34) Google Scholar The explicit recognition of migration as a legitimate and potentially effective response to climate change has been consolidated in the past decade. Black et al.,2Black R. Bennett S.R.G. Thomas S.M. Beddington J.R. Beddington J.R. Migration as an adaptation.Nature. 2011; 478: 447-449Crossref PubMed Scopus (0) Google Scholar for example, argue that migration is part of the landscape of risk but needs to be evaluated as part of common movement motivated by economic and other opportunities. For example, population movements through migration have the potential to reduce overall inequality through promoting sustainable economic development.11Gavonel M.F. Adger W.N. Safra de Campos R. Boyd E. Carr E.R. Fábos A. Fransen S. Jolivet D. Zickgraf C. Codjoe S.N. et al.The migration-sustainability paradox: transformations in mobile worlds.Curr. Opin. Environ. Sustain. 2021; 49: 98-109https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2021.03.013Crossref Scopus (6) Google Scholar Such recognition of migration as an adaptation strategy, however, inevitably places the responsibility on individuals themselves for predicting and responding to future risks and could encourage policy inaction.12Alam A. Khalil M.B. Gender, (im)mobility and social relations shaping vulnerabilities in coastal Bangladesh.Int. J. Disaster Risk Reduct. 2022; 82: 103342https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.103342Crossref Scopus (1) Google Scholar Intensifying calls for recognizing loss and damage from the adverse impacts of climate change also bear relevance for evaluations of migration as successful adaptation, as migration in the context of climate change is increasingly recognized as both a source and symptom of loss and damage.13Norton A. Huq S. Climate-induced Migration Illustrates Loss and Damage Already Being Felt by Communities. IIED Blog, 2021Google Scholar,14Ayeb-Karlsson S. ‘When we were children we had dreams, then we came to Dhaka to survive’: urban stories connecting loss of wellbeing, displacement and (im)mobility.Clim. Dev. 2020; 13: 348-359https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2020.1777078Crossref Scopus (32) Google Scholar,15Ayeb-Karlsson S. Kniveton D. Cannon T. Trapped in the prison of the mind : notions of climate-induced (im)mobility decision-making and wellbeing from an urban informal settlement in Bangladesh.Palgrave Commun. 2020; 6: 62Crossref Scopus (0) Google Scholar Here, we assess under what circumstances migration constitutes a successful adaptation to climate change by examining the entire social phenomenon and system of migration. As with all adaptation actions, their effectiveness depends on outcomes that make them sustainable for all,1Eriksen S. Schipper E.L.F. Scoville-Simonds M. Vincent K. Adam H.N. Brooks N. Harding B. Khatri D. Lenaerts L. Liverman D. et al.Adaptation interventions and their effect on vulnerability in developing countries: help, hindrance or irrelevance?.World Dev. 2021; 141: 105383https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105383Crossref Scopus (171) Google Scholar,7Adger W.N. Arnell N.W. Tompkins E.L. Successful adaptation to climate change across scales.Glob. Environ. Change. 2005; 15: 77-86https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2004.12.005Crossref Scopus (1895) Google Scholar thus avoiding maladaptive responses.16Schipper E.L.F. Maladaptation: when adaptation to climate change goes very wrong.One Earth. 2020; 3: 409-414https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2020.09.014Abstract Full Text Full Text PDF Scopus (83) Google Scholar Sustainable adaptation in the context of migration, therefore, would require simultaneous promotion of social equity and environmental integrity.17Eriksen S. Brown K. Sustainable adaptation to climate change.Clim. Dev. 2011; 3: 3-6https://doi.org/10.3763/cdev.2010.0064Crossref Scopus (93) Google Scholar We examine the inter-temporal and social implications of migration through a representative selection of three scenarios spanning different social and temporal aspects of the migration system: intra-household dynamics in places of origin, experiences in places of destination, and links between destination and origin vis-à-vis remittances. We identify three evaluation criteria—well-being, equity, and sustainability—that can in turn help identify trade-offs that could potentially undermine the success of migration as adaptation (Table 1). We show that for migration to be successful adaptation, well-being, equity, and sustainability outcomes need to be positive for individuals moving, for communities and places that are hosting them, and for origin regions, including across different temporal scales.Table 1Evaluation criteria for migration as successful adaptation as entry points for identifying trade-offs and metrics of successDimensions of successTrade-offsMetrics of successWell-beingbetween different well-being dimensions (objective, subjective, relational), of different individuals (men/women/children), of households and individuals (migrant/household)• housing and living conditions for migrants in destination• healthcare and social protection coverage in destination• change in income• school attendance• proportion of remittances invested in productive assets (e.g., land, agricultural inputs) versus consumption• food security and nutrition• social capitalEquitybetween different individuals in terms of distribution of risks and hazards and recognition in policies and programs• political representation of migrants in destination and participation in policy processes• women’s participation in community decision-making forums• access to early warning and meteorological information• access to housing, services, and infrastructure in destination• reduced mortality and morbidity associated with disaster riskSustainabilitybetween social and ecological systems and between different social units (individual/household), including at different spatial scales (origin/destination).• access to knowledge and training• access to agricultural extension advice• integration of traditional and scientific knowledge for resource management• access to social protectionMetrics of success should be based on disaggregated data to capture intersectional differences, including across different timescales. Open table in a new tab Metrics of success should be based on disaggregated data to capture intersectional differences, including across different timescales. Migration from rural agrarian economies in search of opportunities elsewhere, increasingly driven by climate change impacts on livelihoods, shapes the demographic composition of rural societies. On the one hand, migration can bolster rural economies vis-à-vis remittances; on the other hand, it represents a loss of human resources for rural areas.18Taylor J.E. Martin P.L. Human capital: migration and rural population change.in: Handbook of Agricultural Economics. Elsevier Science, 2001: 457-511https://doi.org/10.1016/S1574-0072(01)10012-5Google Scholar How the benefits and costs of migration are distributed in places of origin, and thus how successful migration as an adaptation is and for whom, needs to be understood with reference to inter-sectional differences.19Porst L. Sakdapolrak P. Advancing adaptation or producing precarity? The role of rural-urban migration and translocal embeddedness in navigating household resilience in Thailand.Geoforum. 2018; 97: 35-45https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoforum.2018.10.011Crossref Scopus (25) Google Scholar The conditions under which men and women use migration as an adaptation to environmental risk are socially differentiated and contextually contingent. Socially constructed identities shape the gendered nature of migration, mediate the distribution of productive and reproductive roles, and govern control over resources and assets within communities as well as within households.20Porst L. Sakdapolrak P. Gendered translocal connectedness: rural-urban migration, remittances, and social resilience in Thailand.Popul. 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Stud. 2020; 27: 259-281https://doi.org/10.1177/0971521520910969Crossref Scopus (2) Google Scholar women’s agency is strongly mediated by structural mechanisms and institutional norms. Commonly in agrocultural comunities with patrilineal land ownership, women’s decision-making is limited to the household: strategic decisions about investing remittances and selling or buying land or other assets that are central to adaptation and risk management often continue to be made by men even in absentia.23Reisman A. Gender Structures, Strategies, and Expectations during Nepal’s Labour Migration. PhD thesis, University of Washington, 2018Google Scholar,33Taylor M.J. Moran-Taylor M.J. Rodman Ruiz D. Land, ethnic, and gender change: transnational migration and its effects on Guatemalan lives and landscapes.Geoforum. 2006; 37: 41-61https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoforum.2004.12.002Crossref Scopus (93) Google Scholar Even when women gain some bargaining leverage at the household level, they frequently remain excluded from decisions about the use and management of communal resources.24Siegmann K.A. Strengthening whom? the role of international migration for women and men in Northwest Pakistan.Prog. Dev. Stud. 2010; 10: 345-361https://doi.org/10.1177/146499340901000406Crossref Scopus (9) Google Scholar,30Nizami A. Ali J. Climate change and women’s place-based vulnerabilities - a case study from Pakistani highlands.Clim. 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They remain regularly overlooked when it comes to extension advice, early warning, and skill training because these either explicitly target men (e.g., in places where women are not recognized as farmers) or implicitly reinforce existing structural barriers by failing to consider women and their cultural needs (e.g., women’s need to observe their purdah and protect their reputation) or by failing to take into account unequal relations of power between men and women.34Ahmed S. Eklund E. Climate change impacts in Coastal Bangladesh: migration, gender and environmental injustice.Asian Aff. 2021; 52: 155-174https://doi.org/10.1080/03068374.2021.1880213Crossref Scopus (10) Google Scholar,35Bhattarai B. Beilin R. Ford R. Gender, agrobiodiversity, and climate change: a study of adaptation practices in the Nepal Himalayas.World Dev. 2015; 70: 122-132https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2015.01.003Crossref Scopus (91) Google Scholar,36Ferdous J. Mallick D. 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Effects of spousal migration on access to healthcare for women left behind: a cross-sectional follow-up study.PLoS One. 2021; 16: e0260219https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0260219Crossref PubMed Scopus (2) Google Scholar it also increases women’s domestic and agricultural work burden. This so-called feminization of agricultural labor, however, rarely leads to real changes in women’s autonomy and control over resources, as their absent husbands or other male household members often continue to control their actions.39Rashid S.R. Bangladeshi women’s experiences of their men’s migration - rethinking power, agency and subordination.Asian Surv. 2013; 53: 883-908Crossref Google Scholar,40Fakir A.M.S. Abedin N. Empowered by absence: does male out-migration empower female household heads left behind?.J. Int. Migr. 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Environ. 2013; 34: 524-553https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-012-0178-0Crossref Scopus (71) Google Scholar In western Kenya, the constrained agency of women leaves them ill equipped to effectively manage their farms, with negative environmental consequences. Women continue to plant maize on degraded land to maintain tenure and avoid stigma, but this undermines soil fertility and food security. Rural family members are increasingly resorting to buying rather than producing their food and laboring on other people’s land instead of cultivating their own.42Ramisch J.J. Never at ease: cellphones, multilocational households, and the metabolic rift in western Kenya.Agric. Human Values. 2016; 33: 979-995https://doi.org/10.1007/s10460-015-9654-3Crossref Scopus (10) Google Scholar Migration may in some circumstnances, therefore, reinforce, rather than reduce, vulnerability to climate and environmental change. Promoting gender equity in migration source areas, in terms of distribution of power and recognition of intersectional needs in policies and programs, is key to the success of migration as adaptation. Labor migration as a form of livelihood diversification is mostly practiced by rural men in Bangladesh. While such voluntary migration has overall positive economic outcomes in places of origin, enhancing the status of left-behind women and affording them improved access to healthcare,38West H.S. Robbins M.E. Moucheraud C. Razzaque A. Kuhn R. Effects of spousal migration on access to healthcare for women left behind: a cross-sectional follow-up study.PLoS One. 2021; 16: e0260219https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0260219Crossref PubMed Scopus (2) Google Scholar it also increases women’s domestic and agricultural work burden. This so-called feminization of agricultural labor, however, rarely leads to real changes in women’s autonomy and control over resources, as their absent husbands or other male household members often continue to control their actions.39Rashid S.R. Bangladeshi women’s experiences of their men’s migration - rethinking power, agency and subordination.Asian Surv. 2013; 53: 883-908Crossref Google Scholar,40Fakir A.M.S. Abedin N. Empowered by absence: does male out-migration empower female