Abstract
Future impacts of climate change on marine fisheries have the potential to negatively influence a wide range of socio-economic factors, including food security, livelihoods and public health, and even to reshape development trajectories and spark transboundary conflict. Yet there is considerable variability in the vulnerability of countries around the world to these effects. We calculate a vulnerability index of 147 countries by drawing on the most recent data related to the impacts of climate change on marine fisheries. Building on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change framework for vulnerability, we first construct aggregate indices for exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity using 12 primary variables. Seven out of the ten most vulnerable countries on the resulting index are Small Island Developing States, and the top quartile of the index includes countries located in Africa (17), Asia (7), North America and the Caribbean (4) and Oceania (8). More than 87% of least developed countries are found within the top half of the vulnerability index, while the bottom half includes all but one of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development member states. This is primarily due to the tremendous variation in countries’ adaptive capacity, as no such trends are evident from the exposure or sensitivity indices. A negative correlation exists between vulnerability and per capita carbon emissions, and the clustering of states at different levels of development across the vulnerability index suggests growing barriers to meeting global commitments to reducing inequality, promoting human well-being and ensuring sustainable cities and communities. The index provides a useful tool for prioritizing the allocation of climate finance, as well as activities aimed at capacity building and the transfer of marine technology.
Highlights
Marine ecosystems and fisheries provide a crucial foundation for human well-being and development, yielding 81.5 million tons of catch in 2014, valued at over USD 90 billion [1]
The vulnerability index calculated by Barange et al [15] using coupled physical-biological shelf seas models across 67 exclusive economic zones (EEZ) matches closely with our findings with the notable exception of the Russian Federation, which occupies a position on the lower half of the vulnerability index
All 31 of the world’s least developed countries (LDCs) with coastlines are included in the calculated vulnerability index, and over 87% are in the top half of the vulnerability index (Table 2)
Summary
Marine ecosystems and fisheries provide a crucial foundation for human well-being and development, yielding 81.5 million tons of catch in 2014, valued at over USD 90 billion [1]. For many low-income food-deficit countries (LIFDCs) and local communities in developing countries, near-shore marine fisheries provide a crucial source of micronutrients, which are necessary for early childhood development and influence long-term public health outcomes [2][3]. Climate change is projected to bring manifold impacts to ocean systems, which will influence the life cycles, abundances and distributions of marine species [6][7]. Unpredictable dynamism in fish stocks has posed a serious challenge to fisheries managers, in the case of shared and straddling fish stocks, suggesting that future changes in distribution due to climate regime shifts may result in conflict and negative impacts on local and national economies [8][9][10]
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