CCGIS를 이용한 기후 변화 대응 전국 232개 시군별 마늘 생산성에 관한 취약성 평가

Abstract

Vulnerability of garlic productivity against climate change using CCGIS (Climate Change adaptation toolkit based on GIS) program was evaluated for 232 cities and counties in Korea. The vulnerability index was calculated from climate exposure index, sensitivity index and adaptive capacity index, adding with weight value for each index. The climate exposure index was highest at Jeju City, Jeju Special Self-Governing Province (JSSGP), and followed by Goheung, Changnyeong, Seoguipo City, JSSGP and Shinan by 0.9283, 0.9237, 0.8564, 0.8215, and 0.8136. Among metropolitan cities and provinces, Gangwon was the highest province, and followed by Chungbuk, Jeonbuk, Gyeonggi, and Chungnam. However, JSSGP was the lowest. Sensitivity index for climate change was highest in JSSGP, and adaptive capacity index in Gyeonggi province. The vulnerability index was highest in JSSGP, and followed by Gangwon, and Gyeonggi province (lowest ). Contribution degree to sensitivity index was low from most of various variables. Contribution degree to adaptive capacity index was highest from GRDP (Gross regional domestic product) of agro-forest industry and GRDP, and low from agriculture population per arable land area, no. of government officials related with land preparation per arable land area. Correlation coefficient between climate exposure variables and climate exposure was highest between no. of days with daily min. temp. below 11°C from Sept. to Oct. and no. of days with daily min. temp. below 14°C from Sept. to Oct. (r2 = 0.949). The result showed that low temperature during seeding or transplanting time affects severe reduction of early growth of garlic plants. Sensitivity variables and index directly affected cultivation area and production amount. Adaptive capacity index and GRDP (r2 = 0.610) or agriculture population per arable land area (r2 = 0.511) was highly correlated. Conclusionally, vulnerability index was highly correlated with adaptation ability index (r2 = 0.424), with sensitivity index (r2 = 0.333), and with climate exposure index (r2 = 0.225), showing that the most significant index for vulnerability overcome would be the adaptive capacity against climate change prepared at each city or county. Keywords: Adaptive capacity index , Climate exposure index , Garlic productivity , Sensitivity index , Vulnerability index