Climate change and dispersion dynamics of the invasive plant species Chromolaena odorata and Lantana camara in parts of the central and eastern India

Abstract

Lantana camara and Chromolaena odorata are categorized as the most obnoxious invasive flora globally. Their ability to combat the regeneration and proliferation of neighbouring flora, expansive nature, and robust adaptability to diverse habitats, drew global attention. Investigating the potential mutual dispersion phenomenon of these two invasive species under the climate change scenario was the primary objective of this study. The present and future (2050) prospective distribution scenarios for these two species were determined using MaxEnt in the eastern and central Indian regions encompassing the states of Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, and West Bengal. Future projections for 2050 were derived using IPSL-CM5A-LR & MIROC5 and IPSL-CM6A-LR & MIROC6 models for different representative concentration pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5), and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs 126, 245, 370 and 585), respectively. The investigation revealed that currently ∼31% and ∼ 24% of the study area are susceptible to infestation of L. camara and C. odorata, respectively. Compared to the current scenario, the results showed a probable future increase of ∼1.53% in C. odorata infestation and a decrease of ∼4.95% for L. camara. The True Skill Statistics (TSS) and Kappa coefficient (in %) values of 0.71 & 76.50 for L. camara and 0.52 & 63.38 for C. odorata indicated a good model fit. Collectively, both the species exhibited robust resilience to climate change, with C. odorata outcompeting L. camara. Using both RCP and SSP pathways under the multiple climate scenarios offered a comprehensive and novel approach to acquiring greater insights into likely interactions, dominance, and distribution scenarios of these species. The results provide prior information on sensitive sites prone to future invasion, allowing management to formulate preventative measures to control infestation.