Energy Supply Readiness Across Climate Change and Energy Demand Scenarios in the Columbia River Basin

Abstract

The Columbia River Power system is the country’s largest renewable energy system, spanning several states and two countries. It provides one of the fastest growing regions in the continent with clean, reliable energy and protects thousands of square miles of land from flooding. The reservoirs on the Columbia River and its tributaries are responsible for many critical functions, such as flood prevention and mitigation, water quality and quantity assurance, and salmon reproduction. Despite these other objectives, the Columbia River Power system is the backbone of the region’s energy supply, providing baseload when other renewable energy sources, namely wind and to a smaller extent solar, are unavailable. When hydropower cannot fill the gap, natural gas must instead, increasing reliance on fossil fuels. The objective of our project is to analyze the energy output of the Columbia River Basin across multiple different climate change and energy demand scenarios to understand the impact that each of these possible futures has on the region’s ability to transition to a cleaner energy future while meeting potentially growing demands. By utilizing multiple scenarios, uncertainty around hydrometeorological and socioeconomic conditions can be quantified and addressed.In this study, we analyze outputs in the middle of the 21st century from the California and West Coast Power System (CAPOW) model, customized to reflect each climate change and energy demand combination. Energy demand scenarios are quantified by Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) and climate change scenarios by CMIP5 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), providing projected trends until the end of the century. By varying low, middle, and high pathways across both the SSPs and RCPs, we can gain insights into the Pacific Northwest’s energy health. This research has the potential to identify shortcomings in the current energy infrastructure, project the benefits and consequences of alternative development pathways, and increase understanding of the Columbia River Power system’s greatest sensitivities (climatic or socioeconomic). Future work can build off of this knowledge to design more robust reservoir operating policies in the Columbia River Basin.