Climate Change Action in Arizona

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I. BACKGROUND II. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN ARIZONA III. EXECUTIVE ORDER 2005-02 AND THE CLIMATE CHANGE ADVISORY GROUP IV. EXECUTIVE ORDER 2006-13 V. ARIZONA'S CLEAN CAR GHG STANDARDS VI. ARIZONA'S RENEWABLE ENERGY STANDARD VII. THE WESTERN CLIMATE INITIATIVE VIII. OTHER REGIONAL EFFORTS A. Arizona-Sonora Climate Change Initiative B. Southwest Climate Change Initiative C. The Climate Registry IX. OTHER ARIZONA EFFORTS A. Executive Order 2005-05 B. Smart Growth & the Growth Scorecard X. CONCLUSION I. BACKGROUND In the absence of meaningful federal action, it has been up to the states to show leadership on this critical issue. And that is exactly what we have done. Governor Janet Napolitano (1) Arizona is one of the newest and fastest growing states in the country. Over the last twenty years, Arizona's population has nearly doubled. (2) During that same time, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Arizona have skyrocketed, due substantially to the state's population growth. An inventory and forecast of Arizona's GHG emissions prepared in 2005 for the Arizona Climate Change Advisory Group (CCAG) at the direction of then-Governor Janet Napolitano found that, between 1990 and 2005, Arizona's net GHG emissions increased by nearly 56 percent, from an estimated 59.3 million metric tons carbon dioxide equivalent (MMtCO2e) to an estimated 92.6 MMtCO2e. (3) Two sectors directly related to Arizona's rapid population growth--transportation and electricity--accounted for nearly 80 percent of Arizona's total GHG emissions in 2005. (4) Both sectors are growing at relatively high rates as Arizona's population grows. Indeed, with Arizona's population expected to continue to grow at a vigorous pace in the decades ahead, (5) the 2005 inventory and forecast projected that Arizona's GHG emissions would increase 148 percent over 1990 levels by 2020 if steps are not taken to reduce the emissions. (6) Because of Arizona's reliance on gasoline-fueled automobiles and demand for electricity produced by coal-fired power plants, Arizona's GHG emissions increased at a rate more than twice the national average during 1990-2005. (7) Further, Arizona's projected 148 percent growth-rate between 1990 and 2020 is more than three times the projected national average over the same period. (8) Arizona's forecasted GHG increase is the highest known projected emissions growth rate in the country. (9) On the other hand, because of Arizona's mild winters and relative absence of manufacturing and heavy industry, the state's per capita GHG emissions (the total level of statewide emissions divided by state population) is significantly less than the national average: 14 MtCO2e versus 22 MtCO2e. (10) Moreover, while the percentage of GHG emissions from electricity production in Arizona is greater than the national average, Arizona gets slightly less electricity from coal and more from low-GHG-emitting sources, such as nuclear power, hydroelectric power and renewable energy (such as solar and biomass). (11) While Arizona's high emissions growth rate presents challenges, it also provides major opportunities. Because nearly 80 percent of Arizona's GHG emissions are directly related to energy and transportation, Arizona can significantly reduce its GHG emissions by focusing on those sectors. Improved energy efficiency, increased use of renewable energy sources, building new infrastructure right, and increased use of cleaner transportation modes, technologies and fuels are key elements in accomplishing these reductions. They are also all essential ingredients of a new, greener economy toward which the state must move in any event. (12) II. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN ARIZONA It is critical that Arizona take action to reduce its GHG emissions because the scientific evidence is clear that Arizona and the Southwest will be especially hard-hit by the impacts of climate change in the future. …