Abstract
One of the best known ecological consequences of climate change is the advancement of spring phenology. Yet, we lack insights into how changes in climate interact with intraspecific genetic variation in shaping spring and autumn phenology, and how such changes in phenology will translate into seasonal dynamics of tree‐associated organisms. To elucidate the impact of warming and tree genotype on spring and autumn phenology, as well as the consequences for the population dynamics of a fungal pathogen Erysiphe alphitoides and plant‐feeding insect Tuberculatus annulatus, we conducted an active field heating experiment using grafts of five oak genotypes Quercus robur. We found that experimental warming generally advanced oak bud burst in spring and delayed leaf senescence in autumn, while additional variation was explained by tree genotype and warming‐by‐genotype interactions. Warming or tree genotype did not affect disease levels at the beginning of the season, but shaped both disease levels and aphid density during the latter part of the season. Overall, our findings demonstrate that elevated temperature and genetic variation affect spring and autumn phenology, as well as the seasonal dynamics of higher trophic levels. Such effects may be either direct (i.e. temperature affecting tree phenology and attack independently) or indirect (as due to climate‐induced changes in plant traits or the synchrony between trees and their attackers). To achieve a predictive understanding of the ecological responses and potential evolutionary changes of natural food webs in response to climate warming, we should merge the frameworks of global warming and community genetics.
Highlights
Variation in climate has a major impact on the timing of phenological events, with several reviews describing a general advancement of spring phenology in plants (Menzel et al.2006, Forrest and Miller-Rushing 2010, Thackeray et al 2016) and plant attackers (Both and Visser 2005, Dodd et al 2008, Liu et al 2011, Thackeray et al 2016) during the last few decades
As for spring phenology, autumn phenology may differ among plant genotypes, and plant genotypes may differ in their response to warming (Gallinat et al 2015, Cooper et al 2019)
We note that our study explicitly aims at establishing, quantifying and comparing the impact of temperature and tree genotype on tree phenology and plant attackers, whereas exposing the exact mechanisms involved will call for further targeted experiments informed by the current work
Summary
Variation in climate has a major impact on the timing of phenological events, with several reviews describing a general advancement of spring phenology in plants (Menzel et al.2006, Forrest and Miller-Rushing 2010, Thackeray et al 2016) and plant attackers (Both and Visser 2005, Dodd et al 2008, Liu et al 2011, Thackeray et al 2016) during the last few decades. Differences in the response to climate may result in altered synchrony among species, and thereby affect the temporal dynamics and community. While spring phenology has been shown to be partly under genetic control (Forrest and Miller-Rushing 2010, Ghelardini et al 2014, Evans et al 2016), and plant genetic variation has been demonstrated to affect the response of plants to warming (Cooper et al 2019), the role of genetic variation for autumn phenology remains poorly understood. Understanding the genetic and climatic drivers of spring and autumn phenology is key to a predictive understanding of tree phenology and the length of the vegetation season, as well as the potential for evolutionary changes and adaptation of tree phenology to climate warming
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