China's Policy Towards Northeast Asia: Dynamics and Prospects

Abstract

Chinese policy towards Northeast Asia is generally determined by three major factors: China`s internal development and its overall foreign policy and security strategy, the dynamics of international environment, and interactions between China and countries involved in the region. During the past two years, each of these factors has undergone significant changes. While China`s domestic developments have become unstable, its overall foreign policy and security strategy have been based more on reaction than initiative. Due to a lower regional Soviet presence, China`s security environment has improved, while its ties with OECD nations have been damaged. Yet by expanding its relations with Seoul, conditionally supporting Pyongyang, reducing tensions with Moscow, and increasing its dependence on Tokyo, Beijing continues to play an important and active role in Northeast Asia. Due to rapidly changed domestic development and international environment, Chinese policy towards Northeast Asia is in transition. In the next few years, its key policy objective is likely to remain the creation of a relatively peaceful and stable international environment and the acquisition of maximum possible economic resources from abroad. It will try to stabilize its relations with the Soviet Union, maintain the military balance and the stability on the Korean penin-sula, encourage Pyongyang to increase its international participa-tion, and expand ties with the Republic of Korea. While its economic dependence on Japan will increase, Beijing`s political relations with Tokyo will be further readjusted. Beijing`s influence over Pyongyang can be used as leverage in its dealing with Washington.